[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KKEY 252217
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Tropical Storm Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 11
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL092022
617 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

This product covers the Florida Keys

**Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower Florida Keys**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Monroe Lower Keys

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 580 miles south of Key West FL
    - 16.2N 80.3W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
-----------------

At 500 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located over the
warm and deep waters of the Western Caribbean, to the south of the
Cayman Islands. Ian is moving toward the west- northwest, and a turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a north-
northwestward motion on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday with a
slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Ian is expected to pass near or over western Cuba Monday night and
early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico on Tuesday, likely as a major hurricane.

Although the forecast calls for a smooth curving turn to the north,
tiny wobbles, interactions with land, and fluctuations in intensity
will result in subtle shifts in the forecast track over the next
48-hours. Nevertheless, Ian will pass west of the Florida Keys Tuesday
and Tuesday night as a major hurricane with a large windfield extending
well to the east of the center of circulation. The threat for damaging
wind gusts from fast moving squalls, storm surge flooding 1 to 2 feet
above normal high tides, flooding rainfall, and isolated tornadoes
remains.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous winds having possible significant impacts across
the Lower Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with minor
      damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      may experience window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Isolated power and communications outages possible.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous coastal flooding having possible limited
impacts across the Lower Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with coastal flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther
      inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by coastal flooding.
    - Minor beach erosion.
    - Minor damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few
      small craft broken away from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rainfall flooding
      at low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and
      parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention
      ponds overflow. Some secondary road closures due to freshwater
      flooding.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile homes
      damaged, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-
      rooted trees knocked over, and small boats pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to
area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/782/Emergency-Management
- For Monroe County EM Hurricane Preparedness Information, see
monroecountyem.com/1214/Hurricane-Preparedness
- For Monroe County EM Evacuation Information, see
monroecountyem.com/897/Evacuation-information
- For Monroe County shelter information, see
monroecountyem.com/992/Shelters

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around midnight, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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