[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 251455
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA WHERE SIGNIFICANT WIND
AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 79.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar
del Rio, and Artemisa, and upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of La Habana,
Mayabeque, and Matanzas.

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 79.8 West. Ian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest at a similar forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward
motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest
of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early
Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night
and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin later today or tonight. Ian
is expected to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday and reach
major hurricane strength Monday night or early Tuesday before it
reaches western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by
early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through
Wednesday morning.

Heavy rainfall may affect north Florida, the Florida panhandle and
the southeast United States Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on
area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in
central Florida given already saturated conditions.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9
to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba
in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night
and early Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and will
spread to the Cayman Islands later today. Swells will then spread
northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of
Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and
Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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