[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

IAN...

Tropical Storm Ian is centered near 14.9N 78.8W at 25/0900 UTC
or 300 nm SSE of Grand Cayman moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and seas are peaking near 12
ft near in just N of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Ian is
forecast to turn NW later today, NNW Mon, then N Tue. Rapid
strengthening is forecast to begin later today and Ian is expected
to become a hurricane later today or tonight, and reach major
hurricane strength by late Mon or Mon night before it reaches
western Cuba.

Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall over Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands and western Cuba, which may produce flash
flooding, and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
Expect life- threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in
portions of western Cuba beginning late Mon. Regardless of Ian’s
exact track, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-
force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida
and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week, and
residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan
in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and closely
monitor updates to the forecast.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

GASTON...

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 39.0N 34.5W at 25/0900
UTC or 270 nm W of Faial Island In The Central Azores moving WNW
at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and seas are
peaking at 18 to 20 ft near and NE of the center. Gaston is
expected to return to a westward motion later today, then turn
WSW Mon. Tropical storm conditions will continue across the
western Azores this morning before improving Sun afternoon as
Gaston moves away from the islands. Heavy rainfall over the
western and central Azores should begin to diminish Sun afternoon.
This rainfall may result in landslides and areas of flooding.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center at website
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

HERMINE...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine is centered near 23.6N 20.2W at
25/0900 UTC or 500 nm NNE of the Cabo Verde Islands moving N at
6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and seas are
peaking at 8 to 10 ft near and NE of the center. Scattered
moderate convection is noted N and NE of the center from 24N to
27N between 16W and 21W. A northward motion will continue today,
with a NW turn Mon, then NNW Mon night. Hermine should dissipate
within a couple of days.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France
at website http://weather/gmdss.org/ll.html and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There are no tropical waves present based on the latest analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from northeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands at 18N21W through a 1009 mb low centered near
14N36W. An ITCZ then continues from 13N37W to 14N57W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted SE of the monsoon
trough from 05N to 15N E of 25W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted near the low and monsoon trough from 10N to 16N between
31W and 39W, and also south of the ITCZ from 10N to 12N between
51W and 53W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms over Panama and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical
Storm Ian, which is anticipated to impact the central eastern
Gulf by the middle of the week.

A 1016 mb high pressure is centered in the NW Gulf, supporting
light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft. Gentle to moderate NE
to ESE winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, conditions will begin to deteriorate across the
eastern and central Gulf of Mexico by Tue as Ian moves northward
from Cuba as a major hurricane. Residents along the Florida west
coast and Florida Panhandle need to monitor this system closely
and review your hurricane preparedness plan.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical
Storm Ian moving across the basin. Also, refer to the monsoon
trough section above for details on convection in the far SW
basin. The remainder of the area is void of precipitation.

Outside the main impacts of T.S. Ian across the central
Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds with 3 to 6 ft
seas are present across the eastern, north-central and south-
central basin. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas at 2 to
4 ft exist over the northwestern basin, while light to gentle
winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the southwestern basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ian is near 14.9N 78.8W 1002 mb
at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Ian will move to 15.7N 80.0W this afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 81.7W Mon morning, and reach
19.1N 83.1W Mon afternoon. Hurricane Ian will be near 21.0N 84.1W
Tue morning, 23.0N 84.6W Tue afternoon, and 24.8N 84.8W Wed
morning. Ian will change little in intensity as it moves through
the northeast Gulf of Mexico early Thu. Hazardous conditions will
prevail in the NW Caribbean through Tue, before winds and seas
gradually subside as Ian moves N of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Gaston and Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine.

A weakening stationary front curves west-southwestward from
east of Bermuda across 31N58W and the northwest Bahamas to
southern Florida. Convection previously along and ahead of this
front has generally dissipated S of 31N. Convergent trades are
creating scattered showers and thunderstorms from eastern Cuba to
the southeast Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
for additional convection in the basin.

Outside the main influence of Hermine, gentle to moderate ENE to
SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft in northerly swell are present near
and east of the stationary front, north of 25N between 44W and
the Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
seas of 5 to 8 ft are found near the Canary Islands north of 24N
between the Western Sahara coast and 27W. The Atlantic ridge is
sustaining gentle to moderate ENE to E trades with 4 to 6 ft seas
north of 15N between 27W and the 44W/Lesser Antilles. Light to
gentle monsoonal and southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, northerly swell N of 26N and W of
55W will gradually subside during the beginning of next week.
Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane at the
eastern Gulf of Mexico Tue through Wed. Impacts from Ian may
affect Atlantic waters offshore Florida midweek.

$$
KONARIK
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