[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 250841
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...
...RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS INCREASING FOR
WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 78.8W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 78.8 West. Ian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest at a similar forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Monday and north
on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast
to pass well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of
the Cayman Islands early Monday.  Ian will then move near or over
western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin later today.  Ian is
expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight and reach
major hurricane strength by late Monday or Monday night before it
reaches western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman
Brac by tonight or early Monday.  Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area in Cuba by Monday night or early
Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Ian is expected to produce the following
rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches.

Florida Keys to the southern and western Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches through Wednesday morning.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on
area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
Southeast cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida given
already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9
to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba
in areas of onshore winds in the watch area Monday night and early
Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and will
spread to the Cayman Islands later today.  Swells will then
spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the
coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
Monday and Monday night.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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