[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 250232
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Hermine Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022

Hermine is barely holding on a as a tropical cyclone. Southwesterly
vertical wind shear has increased to nearly 30 kt which has stripped
away the cyclone's deep convection across the Canary Islands.  The
advisory intensity is set at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI
value from TAFB.  The shear is forecast to increase dramatically to
50 kt by 24 h, and 70 kt by 48 h while Hermine remains over marginal
SSTs and in a dry thermodynamic environment. Therefore, there is
fairly high confidence that sustained organized deep convection will
not regenerate near the center of the cyclone, and the system should
become a remnant low later this morning. The NHC intensity forecast
is unchanged from the previous one.

The depression is moving northward at 10 kt, and that motion is
expected to continue during the next day or so while Hermine moves
in the flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge.  After that
time, a building surface ridge north of the cyclone should cause it
to turn west-northwestward or northwestward.  The NHC track forecast
is little changed from the previous one and remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 22.9N  20.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 24.0N  20.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/0000Z 24.7N  19.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 25.2N  20.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 25.5N  21.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/1200Z 26.1N  23.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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