[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242212
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Sep 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

IAN...

Tropical Storm Ian is centered near 14.3N 77.0W at 24/2100 UTC
or 220 nm S of Kingston Jamaica moving W at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, with seas to 10 ft near the
center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted
within 180 nm of the center of Ian. Ian is expected to continue to
intensify as it moves westward through early Sun before turning
more northward through Mon, reaching hurricane strength by early
Mon west of Jamaica and south of Grand Cayman. Ian is forecast to
become a major hurricane by early Tue as it approaches the western
tip of Cuba, then continue into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through
mid week. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over
Jamaica and Cuba. Expect life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane-force winds in portions of western Cuba beginning late
Mon. Regardless of Ian’s exact track, there is a risk of
dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall
along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the
middle of next week, and residents in Florida should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by
local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

FIONA...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona is centered near 48.4N 60.5W at
24/2100 UTC or 70 nm NW of Port Aux Basques Newfoundland moving
NE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. The
storm has slowed down significantly, but a faster north to north-
northeast motion is expected, taking the center of the system
across Labrador tonight and early Sunday. Fiona is forecast to
continue to affect portions of Atlantic Canada through early
Sunday, and significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall are expected. Heavy rains from Fiona are expected
to continue to impact portions of Atlantic Canada into Sunday.
This rainfall is expected to produce flooding, some of which could
be significant. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the
coast of the northeast United States, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center at website
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

GASTON...

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 38.2N 31.8W at 24/2100
UTC or 150 nm W of Faial Island In The Central Azores moving W
at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, with very
rough seas near the center. Gaston will continue to move west for
a day or so, then move WSW. Tropical storm conditions over the
western Azores should diminish overnight as Gaston moves away from
the islands. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over
the western and central Azores through early Saturday. This
rainfall may result in landslides and areas of flooding.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center at website
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

HERMINE...

Tropical Depression Hermine is centered near 21.8N 20.6W at
24/2100 UTC or 400 nm NNE of the Cabo Verde Islands moving N at
9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, with rough
seas near and to the north of the center. Hermine remains strongly
sheared with an exposed center to the southwest of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection. A northward motion will
continue over the next day or two before a turn toward the left.
Hermine is expected to continue to weaken, and become a remnant
low in the next 24 hours.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo-France at website http://weather/gmdss.org/ll.html and the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There are no tropical waves present based on the latest analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from near the Cabo
Verde Islands at 18N21W through a 1009 mb low centered near
13N37W. An ITCZ then continues from 10N40W to 09N60W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm in the NW semicircle of
the low near 12N36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical
Storm Ian, which is anticipated to impact the eastern Gulf the the
middle of next week.

1016 mb high pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf, with
weak troughing over the north-central and northeast Gulf. This
pattern is maintaining generally light breezes and slight seas
across the basin, No significant shower or thunderstorm activity
is noted at this time.

For the forecast, conditions will begin to deteriorate
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Mon as the center
of Ian emerges from western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Gulf
coast residents and mariners over mainly the eastern Gulf should
follow the latest advisories over the next several days on Ian and
make preparations accordingly.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical
Storm Ian moving across the basin.

Outside of the main impacts of T.S. Ian across the central
Caribbean, no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
evident at this time. Moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas are observed across the eastern Caribbean, and light
to gentle NE breezes and slight seas are noted over the northeast
Caribbean.

For the forecast, Ian will move to 14.6N 78.4W Sun morning, 15.7N 80.3W Sun
afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.4N 82.2W Mon morning,
19.2N 83.5W Mon afternoon, 20.9N 84.4W Tue morning, and 23.1N
85.0W Tue afternoon. Ian will change little in intensity as it
moves near 26.2N 84.8W by Wed afternoon. Deteriorating marine
conditions can be expected near the track of Ian, including the
central Caribbean through early Sun, and portions of the northwest
Caribbean later on Sun through Tue. Heavy rainfall and hazardous
marine conditions will impact waters near Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands and Cuba. Looking ahead, conditions will improve across
the basin starting mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above on Post-
tropical Cyclone Fiona and Tropical Storms Gaston and Hermine in
the Atlantic Basin.

A weak cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda near 31N60W
to 27N72W, where it becomes stationary and extends across the
northern Bahamas to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida. Earlier
convection along this front has diminished. Buoy and altimeter
satellite data indicate 8 to 10 ft seas mainly north of the front
and west of 70W. This is northerly swell associated with the
passage of Fiona across the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, outside
of the main areas of impact associated with Hermine, mostly gentle
to moderate trade winds and moderate seas are noted across the
basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, large swells from extratropical
cyclone Fiona continue across the forecast waters north of 27N and
west of 70W through late Sun, then subside. A ridge will build
across the waters north of 27N through Tue, supporting moderate
winds and seas farther south. Looking ahead, T.S. Ian, currently
in the Caribbean Sea, is expected to intensify into a major
hurricane and move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week.
Marine conditions may deteriorate starting mid week off the east
coast of Florida and across the northern Bahamas as a result.

$$
Christensen
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