[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 242039
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Hermine Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
800 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

Hermine has generally changed little during the past several hours
and it continues to produce heavy rains across the Canary Islands.
The cyclone remains strongly sheared with the low-level center
exposed well to the south-southwest of the main area of deep
convection due to strong southwesterly shear. The initial intensity
is lowered to 30 kt, which is near the high end of the satellite
estimates.  This makes Hermine a tropical depression.

The storm is moving northward at 9 kt, and that motion is expected
to continue during the next day or two while Hermine moves in the
flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge.   After that time, a
turn toward the left is expected as the shallow system is steered by
the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope.

Hermine is expected to move into a region of even stronger shear,
drier air, and cooler SSTs, which should cause the storm to
slowly weaken. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite images show
that the system should lose all of its deep convection tomorrow,
and the NHC forecast now shows the system becoming a remnant low in
24 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 21.8N  20.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 23.1N  20.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 24.0N  20.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0600Z 24.7N  20.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1800Z 25.1N  21.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/0600Z 25.4N  22.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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