[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 241435
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

Fiona continues to produce hurricane-force winds, heavy rains,
storm surge, and rough marine conditions across Atlantic Canada and
the surrounding waters. Surface observations suggest that the
minimum pressure has been rising, and is now estimated to be
about 945 mb, which is still extraordinarily low.  The maximum
winds of the storm are decreasing and are estimated to be near 70
kt.

Fiona is now an occluded low, and it has slowed down.  The initial
motion is estimated to be northward at 22 kt.  A slower northward
motion is forecast during the next few days, taking the center of
the system across the Gulf of St. Lawrence through tonight, across
Labrador early Sunday, and into the Labrador Sea by Sunday night.
The NHC track forecast is just a touch to the west of the previous
one.

Winds are expected to fall below hurricane strength later today,
but the cyclone is still forecast to be a potent low for the next
day or so while it continues to affect Atlantic Canada.  NHC will
continue to issue forecasts for Fiona until gale-force winds end
along the Atlantic Canada coastline.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is forecast to continue to affect portions of Atlantic
Canada during the next day or so, and significant impacts
from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of
Atlantic Canada.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona are expected to continue to impact
portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western
Newfoundland today, persisting across eastern Quebec and Labrador
into Sunday. This rainfall is expected to produce flooding, some of
which could be significant.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coast of
the northeast United States, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during
the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 47.9N  61.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  25/0000Z 50.0N  60.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  25/1200Z 54.1N  59.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  26/0000Z 58.1N  58.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  26/1200Z 61.0N  59.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  27/0000Z 63.3N  58.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/1200Z 65.3N  56.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net