[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 240237
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
200 AM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

Hermine has changed little in organization since earlier this
evening. Persistent deep convection has been occurring in the
northeastern quadrant, with the estimated low-level circulation
center located just to the southwest of the edge of the convection.
The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The cyclone has turned northward and is moving at a heading of 350/9
kt toward a break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. A
northward to northeastward motion is expected into early next week
while Hermine remains in tact. A turn to the northwest is expected
by 72 h as the cyclone becomes shallow and steered by the low-level
flow. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through
60 h, but is a little to the right thereafter due to an overall
shift in the track guidance.

Hermine now has about 18-24 hours to intensify in the presence of
marginal SSTs and moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear. After
24 h, the southwesterly shear is forecast to progressively increase
while dry air gets pulled into the storm's environment. Therefore
weakening is expected after that time, and both the ECMWF and GFS
simulated satellite imagery suggests that Hermine should degenerate
into a remnant low devoid of deep convection on Monday. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is on
the high end of the guidance.

Hermine is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated
totals of 6 inches, over the Canary Islands through this weekend due
to a combination of a mid-latitude trough and moisture from the
cyclone. This rainfall could cause some flash flooding in areas of
higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 19.4N  20.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 20.7N  21.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 22.3N  21.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 23.8N  20.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 24.7N  20.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 25.4N  20.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0000Z 26.1N  21.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0000Z 27.8N  25.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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