[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 211739
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on
Tropical Storm Gaston, located over the north-central Atlantic
Ocean.

Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity
near the southern Windward Islands and over adjacent waters.  The
system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely
become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the
southern Windward Islands today and then move toward the central
Caribbean Sea later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands
should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are affecting these islands.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern
Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later
this week.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to survey the system this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Thursday. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form
this weekend while the system moves slowly northward, between west
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

East Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has continued in association with a
tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands.  Despite a dry environment, slow development of
this system is possible over the next several days as it moves
northwestward and then westward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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