[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Sep 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Fiona, at 19/1800 UTC, is near 19.6N
69.5W, or about 270 km/146 nm to the southeast of Grand Turk
Island. Fiona is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 08 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 80 knots with gusts to 100 knots.
Hurricane force winds are within 25 nm of the center in the E
semicircle, and within 15 nm of the center in the SW quadrant.
Tropical storm force winds are within 120 nm of the center in
the E semicircle, within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant,
and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea
heights of 12 feet or greater are within 120 nm of the center in
the N semicircle, and within 90 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 22 feet. The wind
speeds are ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots, and the sea
heights are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, from 16N to 23N
between 64W and 72W, including in the Mona Passage.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 120 nm of the center.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong is within 300 nm of the
center in the NE semicircle, and from 12N to 17N between 65W and
69W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to 13N between
38W and 53W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, moving
westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 12N southward between 53W and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to 10N20W, to a 1012 mb low pressure
center that is near 09N27W, to 09N36W. The ITCZ continues from
09N36W to 10N41W 09N50W 06N53W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is inland and in the coastal waters
from 10N to 17N between 12W and 18W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 360 nm of the 1012 mb low pressure
center in the NW semicircle.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 25W
eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
the water vapor imagery. No significant deep convective
precipitation accompanies the upper level trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak low level to middle level cyclonic wind flow is inland in
Mexico, and in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, and
some broad surface low pressure, are in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. The precipitation is mostly in the coastal
waters of Mexico, getting close to the coastal waters of the
Deep South of Texas.

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 80W/81W from
21N just to the south of Cuba, beyond 31N, in Florida.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 300 nm to the east of the surface trough, extending to
28N northward from 67W westward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 300 nm to the west of the surface trough.

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the NE part of the area. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the remainder of the area.
Mostly moderate and some fresh winds are in the SW corner of the
area, within 200 nm of the coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico between 90W and 95W. Moderate winds are from
28N northward from 86W eastward in the NE corner of the area.
The wind speeds are gentle or slower in the remainder of the
Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure in the southeastern U.S.A. will maintain gentle to
moderate easterly breezes and slight seas during the next few
days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
HURRICANE FIONA.

A weak upper level trough is on top of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 16N northward from 80W
westward.

The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet, and the wind speeds
are gentle or slower, in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from northern Colombia
beyond southern Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 14N southward between 70W and 78W. Isolated moderate is
from 16N southward from 78W westward.

Hurricane Fiona near 19.1N 69.2W 980 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW
at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Fiona will
move to 20.1N 69.8W this evening, and continue to intensify as
the system moves farther away from the Caribbean Sea through
mid-week. Residual swell from Fiona, that is in the eastern
Caribbean Sea, will subside through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
HURRICANE FIONA.

A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 29N46W. Moderate and some
fresh winds are within 200 nm of the center in the E semicircle.
The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet within a 210 nm
radius of the center. A surface trough is along 27N53W 22N55W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 21N
northward between 42W and 55W. The precipitation is
disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next
couple of days, before the environmental conditions become less
conducive later this week. The system should move generally
northward or northeastward, while remaining in the open central
subtropical Atlantic Ocean. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 25N48W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward between 38W and 55W.

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 80W/81W from
21N just to the south of Cuba, beyond 31N, in Florida.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 300 nm to the east of the surface trough, extending to
28N northward from 67W westward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 300 nm to the west of the surface trough.

The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet from 60W westward.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly moderate and some fresh winds are
from 10N to 20N between 40W and 50W. Gentle to moderate winds
are from 10N to 23N from 40W eastward. Gentle wind speeds or
slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane Fiona near 19.1N 69.2W 980 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW
at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Fiona will
move to 20.1N 69.8W this evening, 21.5N 70.7W Tue morning, 22.9N
71.2W Tue evening, 24.2N 71.2W Wed morning, 26.0N 70.7W Wed
evening, and 28.2N 69.9W Thu morning. Fiona will change little
in intensity as it moves north of the area to 33.3N 65.3W early
Fri. High pressure will build in the wake of Fiona.

$$
mt/al
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