[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 180855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
500 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...FIONA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including
the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and
the Ragged Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue
through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach
Puerto Rico this morning, and move near or over Puerto Rico this
afternoon or evening. Fiona will then move near the northern coast
of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to the
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Fiona is expected to become a
hurricane before reaching the southern or southwestern coast of
Puerto Rico later today. Additional strengthening is expected on
Monday and Tuesday while Fiona moves near the Dominican Republic and
over the southwestern Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A weather station at Teagues Bay, St. Croix
recently reported a wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h). A wind gust of
55 mph (89 km/h) was recently reported at Henry E. Rohlsen Airport
on St. Croix.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier aircraft
data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico today, and
are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic tonight
and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the U.S. Virgin
Islands this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and are spreading westward across Puerto Rico. These
conditions are expected to reach portions of the Dominican Republic
later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch
area in the Dominican Republic tonight, and in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, maximum of 10 inches
on St. Croix.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 25 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local
maximum 12 inches, particularly near the far east coast.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.

These rains will produce life-threatening flash flooding and urban
flooding across Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic,
along with mudslides and landslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico.  For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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