[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Sep 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0555 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fiona is centered near 16.9N 65.5W at 18/0600 UTC
or 65 nm SW of St. Croix moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Peak wave heights are reaching 23 ft near
the center. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 120 nm of center in
the NE quadrant, within 90 nm in the SE and NW quadrants and
within 60 nm in the SW quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted within 270 nm in the eastern semicircle. A
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
pass southwest of the U.S. Virgin Islands and approach Puerto Rico
this morning, and then move near or over Puerto Rico this afternoon
or evening. Fiona will then move near the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to the east of
the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday. Strengthening is
forecast, and Fiona is expected to become a hurricane before
reaching the southern or southwestern coast of Puerto Rico later
today. Additional strengthening is expected on Monday and Tuesday
while Fiona moves over the southwestern Atlantic.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
T.S. Fiona NHC Forecast/Advisory and NHC Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W, south of
16N, moving W at 15 kt. A few showers are observed near the
trough axis.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W,
south of 25N, moving W at 15 kt. A weak 1012 mb low pressure is
present along the tropical wave near 18N. Strong wind shear is
displacing the storm activity well to the northeast of the wave,
mainly from 24N to 29N and between 41W and 46W. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh easterly winds in the
northern portion of the low pressure system. Seas in these waters
are 5-7 ft. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the early or middle part of this week while it moves
generally northward, remaining over the central Subtropical
Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a
low chance of tropical cyclone formation through five days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W to 08N25W to 07N38W. The ITCZ extends from
07N38W to 08N48W. No deep convection is noted in association with
the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge over the eastern United States extends into the Gulf of
Mexico, supporting mainly gentle to locally moderate easterly
winds across the basin. The exception are the nightly pulses of
fresh E-NE winds off NW Yucatan. Seas are 1-3 ft, except for 3-4
ft off NW Yucatan. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are evident on satellite imagery in the Florida Straits and Bay of
Campeche, while the rest of the Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil
weather conditions.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will
maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes and slight seas the
next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Fiona currently located over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea.

Outside of Fiona, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
seen off the southern coast of Cuba and in the Windward Passage.
Similar storm activity is present within 100 nm of SE Nicaragua,
Costa Rica and W Panama. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicate that fresh to strong easterly trade winds are occurring
off southern Hispaniola, especially N of 15N and between 68W and
72W, and also at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in
these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fiona is near 16.6N 64.9W 997 mb, or
about 65 nm south of St. Croix at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 7 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Fiona will move to
near 17.2N 66.0W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near
18.1N 67.3W Sun evening with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts
80 kt, move to near the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic
near 19.1N 68.5W Mon morning, to near 20.3N 69.4W Mon evening,
to near 21.6N 70.2W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 75
kt gusts 90 kt, to near 23.0N 70.5W Tue night and to near 25.5N
70.5W Wed night with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt.
Residual swell over the eastern Caribbean from Fiona will slowly
subside over the eastern Caribbean Mon into Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Fiona, which is expected to be in the vicinity of
the Turks and Caicos early next week.

A surface trough extends from 31N80W to the Florida Straits and
supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N to
31N and east of the trough axis to 75W. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds are found N of 29N and W of 77W, along with seas of 3-5 ft.
Fresh to strong trades are noted off NW Hispaniola and SE Bahamas,
mainly S of 22N and between 71W and 75W. The remainder of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a weak ridge over the central
Atlantic, allowing for generally tranquil weather conditions.

In the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong N-NE winds are occurring
off SW Western Sahara and Mauritania, primarily from 18N to 22N
and E of 20W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Fiona is over the far
northeastern Caribbean Sea near the U.S Virgin Islands, with
maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt moving WNW at 7 kt with
a pressure of 997 mb. Fiona is forecast to move to near 17.2N
66.0W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.1N 67.3W Sun
evening with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to
near the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic near 19.1N
68.5W Mon morning, to near 20.3N 69.4W Mon evening, to near 21.6N
70.2W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt,
to near 23.0N 70.5W Tue night and to near 25.5N 70.5W Wed night
with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. High pressure
will build in the wake of Fiona.

$$
DELGADO
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