[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 172056
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO FROM FIONA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 64.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warnings for Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin.

The government of Sint Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern
Bahamas should monitor the progress of Fiona.  Watches could be
required for these areas tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 64.6 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A northwestward
motion is forecast to begin on Sunday and continue through Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will move south of the
U.S. Virgin Islands this evening, approach Puerto Rico tonight, and
move across Puerto Rico by Sunday afternoon.  Fiona will then
offshore of the Dominican Republic on Monday and near or to the
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Fiona is expected to become a
hurricane before reaching the southern coast of Puerto Rico on
Sunday.  Additional strengthening is expected on Monday and Tuesday
while Fiona moves over the southwestern Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 42060 east-southeast of Fiona's center
recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to
51 mph (83 km/h).  A station at Teagues Bay, St. Croix, recently
reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 44 mph
(70 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico Sunday and
are possible in the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight.  Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the
Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Leeward Islands within the warning area through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands, and will spread westward across Puerto Rico
this evening and tonight and portions of the Dominican
Republic late Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible across
the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night.

RAINFALL:  Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 to 4
inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of
10 inches possible.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 20 inches
possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of 12 inches
possible, particularly on the far eastern coast.

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches.

These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly in portions of Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican
Republic.

Very heavy rains and flooding have occurred over portions of the
Leeward Islands since Friday.  A station at St. Claude Matouba Irfa,
in the mountains in southwestern Guadeloupe, recently measured a
24-hour rainfall total of 19.85 inches (504.2 mm).

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico.  For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.  These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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