[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 170856
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...FIONA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 63.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, including Vieques
and Culebra.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda.

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward
to Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo westward
to Barahona

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
Fiona. Additional watches or warnings could be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 63.3 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona
is expected to move near or just south of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today through Sunday, and approach the southern or
eastern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and Fiona could be near hurricane
strength when it moves near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic
this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently
reported at F.D. Roosevelt Airport on Sint Eustatius.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area over
portions of Puerto Rico late tonight or on Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions will continue across portions of the Leeward Islands
within the warning area through this morning. Tropical storm
conditions will reach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later
this morning, spread westward across Puerto Rico this afternoon and
tonight, and reach portions of the Dominican Republic on Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the
Dominican Republic beginning Sunday afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 to 4
inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local 10 inches
possible.

Puerto Rico: 5 to 10 inches with local 16 inches possible,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with 12 inches possible,
particularly on the far eastern coast.

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 10 inches.

These rains are likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly in southern
and eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands.  For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Swells will spread westward to the northern coast of Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas over the
weekend. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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