[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Sep 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0555 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Fiona has entered the NE Caribbean
Sea. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rains are occurring
across portions of the Leeward Islands. The storm is centered near
16.3N 62.8W at 17/0300 UTC or 85 nm NNW of Guadeloupe, moving W
at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas of
21 ft are near and northeast of the center. Seas 12 ft or greater
extend from the center of Fiona to 240 nm in the NE quadrant, 120
nm in the SE quadrant, 60 nm in the SW quadrant, and 240 nm in the
NW quadrant. Shear has decreased and the center is now tucked
into the convection. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is noted from 12N to 19N and between 57W and 65W. A
westward to west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast on Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Fiona is expected to move near or just south of the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico today into Sunday, and approach the
southern or eastern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday
afternoon. Fiona is forecast to move across the Dominican Republic
Sunday night and Monday. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and
Fiona could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the
Dominican Republic on Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest T.S.
Fiona NHC Forecast/Advisory and NHC Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of
16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 07N to 13N and between 23W and 34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W, south
of 24N, moving W at 15 kt. An area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms are near the northern end of the tropical wave,
mainly from 17N to 22N and between 38W and 45W. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong
easterly winds are occurring from 17N to 23N and between 40W and
47W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the early or middle part of next
week while it moves slowly northwestward to northward. The latest
Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation through five days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The
Gambia near 13.5N16W to 09N25W to 09N36W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 05N to 12N and E of 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A couple of surface troughs located in the NE Gulf and western
Bay of Campeche and divergence aloft result in scattered showers
dotting the waters of the Gulf, except for the NW Gulf where a dry
environment is suppressing the storm activity. The weak pressure
regime in the Gulf continues to support gentle to moderate
easterly winds. Seas of 3-4 ft are found in the northern Gulf,
especially N of 27N. Seas of 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere in the
basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern U.S. is
maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes and slight seas,
and this will continue through early next week. A surface trough
over the eastern Gulf will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf through most of the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Fiona, which is forecast to impact the NE
Caribbean.

Outside of Fiona, a weak surface trough along 72W, from 14N to
21N, is interacting with a divergence trough to produce scattered
showers over the north-central Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are found within 100 nm of the coasts
of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and NW Colombia. A few showers
are also noted off Cuba and eastern Yucatan. Moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds are occurring in the north-central Caribbean,
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 4-6 ft.
Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fiona is near 16.6N 62.2W 1002
mb, or about 50 nm west-northwest of Guadeloupe at 11 PM EDT
moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt.
Fiona will move to near 17.0N 63.9W Sat morning with maximum
sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, and maintain intensity as it
moves to near 17.4N 65.8W Sat evening, to near 17.8N 67.4W Sun
morning and inland the Dominican Republic near 18.4N 68.6W Sun
evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Fiona is
forecast to weaken slightly as it moves to near 19.4N 69.6W Mon
morning, to near 20.4N 70.5W Mon evening, and strengthen to a
hurricane back over water near 22.3N 71.8W Tue evening with
maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Fiona is forecast to
reach near 24.7N 72.0W Wed evening with maximum sustained winds 75
kt gusts 90 kt. High pressure will build in behind Fiona.
Residual swell from Fiona will linger over the northeastern
Caribbean and northwestern part of the Tropical N Atlantic Tue
through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Fiona.

A stationary front extends from 31N70W to 29N80W and a few showers
are noted near the trough axis. Moderate to locally fresh W winds
are occurring N of 30N and between 65W and 69W. Seas are 3-5 ft in
the area described. Farther south, fresh to locally moderate
easterly trade winds are found S of 21N and between 71W and 77W.
Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a large ridge over the central Atlantic, maintaining
fairly tranquil weather conditions.

In the eastern Atlantic, satellite-derived wind data show that fresh
to strong N-NE winds are present from 17N to 23N and E of 30W,
with the strongest winds occurring off northern Mauritania.
Similar winds are evident off Morocco and Western Sahara and the
waters surrounding the Canary Islands. Seas are 6-9 ft N of 16N
and E of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6
ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Fiona is near 16.6N
62.2W 1002 mb, or about 50 nm west-northwest of Guadeloupe at 11
PM EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60
kt. Fiona will move to near 17.0N 63.9W Sat morning with maximum
sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, and maintain intensity as it
moves to near 17.4N 65.8W Sat evening, to near 17.8N 67.4W Sun
morning and inland the Dominican Republic near 18.4N 68.6W Sun
evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Fiona is
forecast to weaken slightly as it moves to near 19.4N 69.6W Mon
morning, to near 20.4N 70.5W Mon evening, and strengthen to a
hurricane back over water near 22.3N 71.8W Tue evening with
maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Fiona is forecast to
reach near 24.7N 72.0W Wed evening with maximum sustained winds 75
kt gusts 90 kt. A stationary front extending from near 31N70W to
29N75W and to 29N80W will change little through the weekend.
Moderate northeast winds north of the frontal boundary will
continue through Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected near the frontal boundary.

$$
DELGADO
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