[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Sep 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

Discussion updated at 0700 UTC to account for the increased
tropical cyclone development potential described in the special
features section.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong tropical wave extends along 48W from 04N to 21N, moving
W at 12 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 16N48W
along this wave. Numerous moderate convection is observed from
13N to 19N, between 45W and 48W. Fresh to strong easterly winds
and 8-10 ft seas are observed along the northern half of this
wave. Although environmental conditions are only marginally
conductive, some additional development of this system is
possible and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days. This system is expected to move westward to west-
northwestward over the tropical Atlantic and it is expected to be
near the Leeward Islands on Friday. The current outlook assigns a
medium chance of development through 48 hours and a medium chance
through 5 days. Refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the NHC at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 27W, from 04N to
20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 09N to 15N, between 25W and 30W. While a recent scatterometer
pass found some broad circulation near 12N27W, environmental
conditions are expected to become less favorable and tropical
cyclone development is no longer anticipated.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 74W, from 05N to 20N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered weak convection is observed around
Hispaniola, from 18N to 22N, between 69W and 75W. Scattered
moderate convection is also observed over NE Colombia and NW
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 09N34W. In addition to convection associated with
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed from
05N to 10N, between 30W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary boundary extends across the northern Gulf from
the Florida Big Bend area to the central Texas Gulf coast. Upper-
level divergent flow south of the boundary is supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf, S of 28N.
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is supporting gentle to
moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak stationary front extends from near
Crystal River, Florida to Matagorda Bay, Texas. The front may
shift slowly southeast and south to near Tampa, Florida to
Brownsville, Texas through late Wed before dissipating. Looking
ahead to later in the week, high pressure will build over the
southeast U.S. following the front, maintaining gentle to moderate
easterly breezes and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low near Turks and Caicos is supporting scattered
moderate convection in the Caribbean from 16N to 22N, between 77W
and 85W. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient between subtropical
high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the
central and eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trades
across the NW Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft in the central and
eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist over the Caribbean as a tropical wave moves
across the central portions of the basin. Winds and seas will
start to increase from east to west starting late Wed over the
central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the
wake of the tropical wave. Northerly swell moving through the
Atlantic passages will gradually subside late Wed. Looking ahead,
another tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Fri,
and reach the central Caribbean by Sat, and then the western
Caribbean late Sun into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper-level low over the Turks and Caicos is inducing
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and
surrounding waters in the western Atlantic. A 1019 mb high
pressure centered near 31N61W is supporting gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with 5-7 ft seas, comprised primarily of
northerly swell. A weak cold front extends across the central
Atlantic from 31N43W to 27N50W. Gentle westerlies are observed
behind this feature, with moderate SE winds ahead. Seas are
generally 6-8 ft in the region, with stronger winds and higher
seas near the tropical wave described above. In the eastern
Atlantic, moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas dominate.

For the forecast west of 55W, the northerly swell is expected to
subside through Wed, mainly west of 65W. The northern end of a
tropical wave will pass 55W south of 22N by early Fri, bringing
fresh E winds and locally rough seas to the area northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands. The wave may weaken as it continues
westward toward the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas
through Sat. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the waters
off northeast Florida and stall by the end of the week into the
weekend.

$$
Flynn
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