[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140008 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Sep 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

CORRECTED HEADER DATE AND TIME

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 25W, moving
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 05N to 15N between 25W and 37W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N to 23N between 20W and
25W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis near 46W, moving
west at 5 kt. A 1011 mb low located near 15N45W is associated with
this wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
12N to 20N between 40W and 52W. Some gradual development of this
system is possible within the next 5 days, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves W to WNW over the tropical
Atlantic and approaches the Leeward Islands on Friday. Refer to
the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the NHC at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin+atlc&fdays=2

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 73W
south of 20N, moving west around 15 kt. There is no convection
over the central Caribbean associated with this wave, however
scattered showers are noted inland Hispaniola and northern
Venezuela and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Atlantic monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa
near 19N16W to 10N25W to 09N34W. For information about convection,
refer to the tropical waves section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extending from near Cedar Key, Florida to 27N90W
stalls close to the Texas coastal waters near 27N94W. Upper-level
divergent flow ahead of the front is supporting scattered showers
and tstms E of 87W. A middle-level inverted trough continue to
support a trough in the Bay of Campeche, which stretches NE
towards the north-central Gulf just ahead of the front. Scattered
moderate convection and tstms associated with this trough continue
to affect the SW and west-central basin. Otherwise, a weak
pressure gradient across the area is supporting light to gentle
variable winds, except N of the front where gentle to moderate NE
winds are observed. Seas are in the 1-3 ft basin-wide.

For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to shift slowly
south then stall from near Tampa, Florida to Brownsville, Texas
through late Wed then dissipate. Looking ahead to later in the
week, high pressure will build over the southeast U.S. following
the front, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes and
slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and a tropical wave
in the central Caribbean is supporting moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft E of 73W. Moderate to fresh
winds are also in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 3 ft. Light to
gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Middle-level diffluent flow
over the NW basin and an upper-level low centered near Turks and
Caicos is supporting scattered showers over the NW basin while the
tropical wave generates similar shower activity over portions of
Hispaniola.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist over the Caribbean as a tropical wave moves
across the central portions of the basin. Winds and seas will
start to increase from east to west starting late Wed over the
central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the
wake of the tropical wave. Northerly swell moving through the
Atlantic passages will gradually subside late Wed. Looking ahead,
another tropical wave will enter into the eastern Caribbean Fri,
and reach the central Caribbean by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface ridge covers the Atlantic subtropical waters,
which is anchored by a 1018 mb high just SE of Bermuda and a 1020
mb high near 29N33W. This is supporting mainly gentle to moderate
NE to E winds E of 40W and S of 27N with seas to 7 ft. Light to
gentle variable winds are elsewhere W of 40W and N of 22N with
seas to 7 ft. S of 22N, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas
to 8 ft are noted due to the passage of tropical waves. Otherwise,
a cold front started to sink across the far NW offshore waters
with no significant winds and seas at the current time, but with
scattered showers ahead of it affecting the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, northerly swell of 6 to 8 ft is
across the waters east of the Bahamas. The swell is expected to
subside through Wed, mainly west of 65W. The northern end of a
tropical wave will pass 55W south of 22N by early Fri, bringing
fresh E winds and locally rough seas to the area northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands. The wave may weaken as it continues
westward toward the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas
through Sat. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the waters
off northeast Florida and stall by the end of the week into the
weekend.

$$
Ramos
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