[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Sep 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 25W, moving
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 05N to 15N between 25W and 37W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N to 23N between 20W and
25W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis near 46W, moving
west at 5 kt. A 1011 mb low located near 15N45W is associated with
this wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
12N to 20N between 40W and 52W. Some gradual development of this
system is possible within the next 5 days, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves W to WNW over the tropical
Atlantic and approaches the Leeward Islands on Friday. Refer to
the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the NHC at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin+atlc&fdays=2

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 73W
south of 20N, moving west around 15 kt. There is no convection
over the central Caribbean associated with this wave, however
scattered showers are noted inland Hispaniola and northern
Venezuela and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Atlantic monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa
near 19N16W to 10N25W to 09N34W. For information about convection,
refer to the tropical waves section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extending from near Cedar Key, Florida to 27N90W
stalls close to the Texas coastal waters near 27N94W. Upper-level
divergent flow ahead of the front is supporting scattered showers
and tstms E of 87W. A middle-level inverted trough continue to
support a trough in the Bay of Campeche, which stretches NE
towards the north-central Gulf just ahead of the front. Scattered
moderate convection and tstms associated with this trough continue
to affect the SW and west-central basin. Otherwise, a weak
pressure gradient across the area is supporting light to gentle
variable winds, except N of the front where gentle to moderate NE
winds are observed. Seas are in the 1-3 ft basin-wide.

For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to shift slowly
south then stall from near Tampa, Florida to Brownsville, Texas
through late Wed then dissipate. Looking ahead to later in the
week, high pressure will build over the southeast U.S. following
the front, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes and
slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and a tropical wave
in the central Caribbean is supporting moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft E of 73W. Moderate to fresh
winds are also in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 3 ft. Light to
gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Middle-level diffluent flow
over the NW basin and an upper-level low centered near Turks and
Caicos is supporting scattered showers over the NW basin while the
tropical wave generates similar shower activity over portions of
Hispaniola.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist over the Caribbean as a tropical wave moves
across the central portions of the basin. Winds and seas will
start to increase from east to west starting late Wed over the
central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the
wake of the tropical wave. Northerly swell moving through the
Atlantic passages will gradually subside late Wed. Looking ahead,
another tropical wave will enter into the eastern Caribbean Fri,
and reach the central Caribbean by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends west-southwestward from 31N46W to
28N50W, then continues westward as a surface trough to 26N68W.
Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are seen up to 70
nm southeast of the front, and north of the trough. A broad
upper-level low over the southeastern Bahamas is inducing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over and northeast of
the Bahamas. Convergent trades are coupling with divergent winds
aloft to generate similar weather near and southeast of Trinidad
and Tobago. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas
of 7 to 10 ft in northerly swell north of 25N between the
northwest African coast and George/Florida coast, including the
Canary Islands. Outside the influence of the central Atlantic
tropical wave, gentle to moderate easterly trades and 5 to 7 ft
seas are found from 10N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser
Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, NNE to NE moderate to fresh
trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft exist from 13N to 25N between the
central African coast and 35W. Light to gentle monsoonal and
southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell prevail
for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the northerly swell of 7 to 10 ft
is across the waters east of the Bahamas. The swell is expected to
subside into mid week. The northern end of a tropical wave will
pass 55W south of 22N by early Fri, bringing fresh E winds and
locally rough seas to the area northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands. The wave may weaken as it continues westward toward the
Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas through Sat. Looking
ahead, a cold front may move into the waters off northeast
Florida and stall by the end of the week into the weekend.

$$
Ramos
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