[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Sep 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 21N southward
across the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving west around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 21N between
20W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is relocated to near 44W from
21N southward through a 1011 mb low near 15N44W, and moving west
at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 12N to 17N
between 41W and 49W. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 7 to 10 ft
seas are evident north of the low from 16N to 22N between 39W and
51W. There is a medium chance for this system to develop further
over the next 2 to 5 days. Refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook
issued by the NHC at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin+atlc&fdays=2

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from 20N southward across
Hispaniola into northwestern Venezuela and central Colombia, and
moving west around 15 kt. Aided by an upper-level low near the
southeastern Bahamas, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring over Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Jamaica and nearby
waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
just north of Nouakchott, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands
at 14N23W to 09N33W. Other than the convection related to the
tropical wave mentioned above, numerous moderate convection is
found up to 100 nm along either side of the trough between 26W and
33W. There is no ITCZ based on the latest analysis.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea just north of Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches across the northern Gulf from the Florida
Big Bend area to near Galveston, Texas. Isolated thunderstorms are
present up to 40 nm along either side of the front. A surface
trough curves southwestward from south of New Orleans to the
western Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
evident over the central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay
of Campeche. Convergent surface winds are producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southeastern Gulf.

Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds exist at the north-central
Gulf, and southerly winds are over the southwestern Gulf. Seas at
both areas range from 2 to 3 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of
1 to 2 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface trough will linger over the
southwestern Gulf into mid week, ahead of the cold front. The
weak cold front will shift slowly south then stall from near
Tampa, Florida to Brownsville, Texas by mid week then dissipate.
Looking ahead after midweek, high pressure will build over the
southeast U.S. following the front, maintaining gentle to moderate
easterly breezes and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent easterly trades are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the northwestern basin, including the
Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional weather in the basin. Gentle to
moderate easterly trades with 3 to 5 ft seas are present across
the central and eastern basin. Light to gentle trades and seas at
2 to 3 ft prevail for the western basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist through tonight over the Caribbean as a
tropical wave moves across the central portions of the basin.
Winds and seas will start to increase from east to west starting
late Wed over the central Caribbean as high pressure builds north
of the area in the wake of the tropical wave. Northerly swell are
moving through the Atlantic passages today and will gradually
subside late Wed. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will move
into the eastern Caribbean Fri, and reach the central Caribbean by
Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends west-southwestward from 31N46W to
28N50W, then continues westward as a surface trough to 26N68W.
Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are seen up to 70
nm southeast of the front, and north of the trough. A broad
upper-level low over the southeastern Bahamas is inducing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over and northeast of
the Bahamas. Convergent trades are coupling with divergent winds
aloft to generate similar weather near and southeast of Trinidad
and Tobago. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas
of 7 to 10 ft in northerly swell north of 25N between the
northwest African coast and George/Florida coast, including the
Canary Islands. Outside the influence of the central Atlantic
tropical wave, gentle to moderate easterly trades and 5 to 7 ft
seas are found from 10N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser
Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, NNE to NE moderate to fresh
trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft exist from 13N to 25N between the
central African coast and 35W. Light to gentle monsoonal and
southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell prevail
for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the northerly swell of 7 to 10 ft
is across the waters east of the Bahamas. The swell is expected to
subside into mid week. The northern end of a tropical wave will
pass 55W south of 22N by early Fri, bringing fresh E winds and
locally rough seas to the area northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands. The wave may weaken as it continues westward toward the
Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas through Sat. Looking
ahead, a cold front may move into the waters off northeast
Florida and stall by the end of the week into the weekend.

$$

Chan
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