[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Sep 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W, south of
21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
captured the strong wave, showing a sharp trough and fresh NE
winds from 15N to 22W and between 30W and 40W. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is observed on
satellite imagery from 05N to 18N and between 30W and 43W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W,
south of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is surrounded by a
dry and dusty Saharan airmass that is inhibiting the development
of deep convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W to 12N30W to 07N48W. The ITCZ extends from
07N48W to 09N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the
coast of Africa from 04N to 11N and E of 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Water vapor imagery depict a deep trough over the central Gulf,
extending from the Mississippi/Alabama border southwestward into
the Bay of Campeche. At the surface, a trough stretches from NW
Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are found to the east of the trough, especially N of
24N and within 200 nm. A dry continental airmass maintains
tranquil weather conditions to the west of the trough. Moderate to
locally fresh SE to S winds are east of the trough, along with
seas of 2-4 ft. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 1-2 ft seas
are west of the trough.

For the forecast, a surface trough extending from near Pensacola,
Florida to south of Veracruz, Mexico will linger over the
southwest Gulf into mid week, ahead of a cold front moving into
the northern Gulf Mon. The weak cold front will shift slowly south
then stall from near Tampa, Florida to Corpus Christi, Texas by
mid week then dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is found in
the SW Caribbean Sea, mainly S of 13N, extending from the eastern
coast of Nicaragua to NW Colombia. This is associated with
abundant tropical moisture interacting with the E Pacific monsoon
trough that extends from the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to NW
Colombia. A few showers dot the waters of the central and NW
Caribbean due to divergence aloft. The rest of the basin enjoys
fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that fresh to locally strong easterly
trade winds are found in the south-central and SW Caribbean Sea.
Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades
are noted in the remainder of the north-central and NW Caribbean,
with seas of 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and seas
of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail across the
basin through tonight, except for fresh to locally winds in the
south- central Caribbean and offshore eastern Honduras. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist Mon and
Tue over the Caribbean as a tropical wave moves across the eastern
and central portions of the basin. Winds and seas will start to
increase from east to west starting Wed as high pressure builds
north of the area in the wake of the tropical wave. Northerly
swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages early on Tue
and will gradually subside late Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southward from the extratropical cyclone,
former Hurricane Earl, located south of Newfoundland, and enters
the tropical Atlantic near 31N50W to 26N63W to 31N73W. Scattered
showers are occurring within 90 nm of the cold front, mainly N of
27N and W of 48W. Satellite-derived wind data show fresh to strong
S-SW winds N of 26N and between 41W and 50W. Seas in these waters
are 6-10 ft. Behind the cold front, seas are 6-12 ft, with the
highest seas occurring near 31N57W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge
that supports fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are present off the coast of Western Sahara and NW
Mauritania, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Farther north, NW swell
associated with the remnants of former Hurricane Danielle are
producing seas of 6-8 ft N of 28N. Elsewhere in the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, northeasterly swell of 7 to 9 ft is
evident north of a cold front currently reaching along roughly
28N west of 70W. The front will continue to move southward to 25N
west of 65W through Mon, then stall and dissipate through late Mon
into Tue. The swell will spread across the open waters east of
the Bahamas through late Mon, then subside into mid week. Looking
ahead, the northern end of a tropical wave will pass 55W south of
22N by Thu, bringing fresh E winds and locally rough seas to the
area northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

$$
DELGADO
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