[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Sep 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 21N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 270 nm
to the west of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 23N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the
tropical wave, from 12N southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 16N16W, to 10N30W 08N35W and 05N39W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N39W, to 06N48W and 09N52W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is from 06N to 10N between Africa and
22W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm
to the north of the ITCZ between 40W and 56W.

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough is along 25N17W 19N26W
15N34W. Some of the convective precipitation that is at the
southwestern end of the upper level trough also is near the
35W/36W tropical wave.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging its way through the western two-
thirds of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 21N northward
from 88W westward. A surface trough extends from 28N90W into the
northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are from 90W
eastward. Numerous strong is within 210 nm to the north of NW
Cuba. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 90W
eastward in the Gulf of Mexico.

The surface pressure gradient that is between the central Gulf of
Mexico surface trough, and the higher western Atlantic Ocean
surface pressures, is leading to fresh to locally strong
southerly winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 6
feet from 87W eastward. Light to gentle and variable winds,
and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 2 feet, elsewhere, from
87W westward.

A surface trough extending from the north central to SW Gulf
linger through the early part of the week before dissipating.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of the trough and in deep
convection will continue through the remainder of the weekend,
locally higher in and near convection east of the trough. Gentle
to moderate NE to E winds will prevail basin-wide Wed and Thu as
high pressure north of the area becomes established.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough reaches from the central Bahamas upper level
cyclonic circulation center, to SE Cuba, to 13N79W in the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N northward
between Puerto Rico and 80W.

Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh NE
winds are within 90 nm to 150 nm to the north of Venezuela and
Colombia between 70W and 76W. Moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere
within 200 nm to the north of Venezuela and Colombia between 67W
and 77W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are within 120 nm to the
north of the coast of Honduras from 84W westward. Moderate wind
speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet in the eastern one-
third of the area. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in
the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 10N75W at the coast of Colombia,
beyond southern Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered strong is in clusters, that are from 180
nm to 480 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. Numerous strong
is between western Honduras and western Guatemala, about 150 nm to
the north of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough.

Mainly moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the basin
through Sun night. The exception is for fresh to locally strong
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, and offshore eastern
Honduras, where the winds will be fresh to strong at night. Trade
winds are forecast to increase to fresh speeds in the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea, from Tue through Thu, as a tropical wave
moves through the area, occasionally and locally strong.
Northerly swell will propagate through the Atlantic Ocean passages
early on Tue, and gradually will subside late Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough, its associated cold front, and a surface
trough, are three of the main weather features for the Atlantic
Ocean that is from 45W westward. The cold front is from 29N
northward between 53W and 70W. The surface front is about 400 nm
to the southeast of the cold front. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward
between 45W and 62W. The rest of the frontal boundary passes
through 30N70W, northwestward, to the border of South
Carolina/North Carolina. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is on top of the central Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the Atlantic Ocean elsewhere from
62W westward.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet and higher, to the
north of line 31N28W 28N45W 30N70W. Fresh winds speeds or faster
are from 31N northward within 360 nm to the east of the cold
front. Moderate wind speeds or slower, and sea heights that range
from 3 feet to 6 feet, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Weak high pressure ridging will prevail from along 23N northwest
to just northeast of the the Bahamas through Sun. A cold front
extending from 31N55W to 29N62W to 31N72W will extend from 27N55W
to 25N66W Sun afternoon, and dissipate on Mon. Northeasterly swell
will follow the front, and spread across the area waters Sun
through Tue, decaying Wed. A trough or weak front may move into
the waters offshore NE Florida midweek.

$$
mt/jl
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