[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 101436
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 10 2022

Earl continues to undergo extratropical transition as it merges
with the mid-latitude trough seen in GOES-16 airmass imagery near
and to the west of the hurricane.  The central convection is
starting to shear away from the low-level center and cold-air clouds
are wrapping around the south side of the circulation. The initial
intensity is reduced to 80 kt based on a combination of subjective
and objective Dvorak intensity estimates.

Earl should complete extratropical transition during the next 6 h
or so, with the system maintaining  hurricane-force winds during
this time.  After that, the cyclone is expected to gradually weaken
during the next 72 h as it moves over the open North Atlantic.  The
new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward during the first
48 h to match the trend of the intensity guidance, and then is
similar to the previous forecast.

Earl has turned a little to the left and slowed its forward motion
since the last advisory, with the initial motion now 025/25 kt.  As
Earl merges with the mid-latitude trough, an additional
significant decease in forward speed is expected during the next 12
h, followed by a slow northeastward motion that should continue
through Sunday night.  Subsequently, Earl should be steered
generally eastward by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The new
forecast track has been shifted to the northwest of the previous
track during the first 36 h and is close to the previous track
thereafter. The northwestward shift of the track, along with
Earl's large wind field, is expected to lead to strong winds
occurring over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland beginning this
afternoon and continuing through Sunday.  For additional information
on impacts in Newfoundland, please monitor forecasts and warnings
from Environment Canada.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong winds are expected over the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland beginning this afternoon and continuing through Sunday,
after Earl becomes a post-tropical low.

2. Large swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the
next several days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 42.9N  53.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 44.4N  51.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  11/1200Z 45.0N  51.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  12/0000Z 45.2N  50.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  12/1200Z 45.4N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  13/0000Z 45.3N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/1200Z 45.3N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1200Z 45.5N  40.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/1200Z 46.5N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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