[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Sep 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Earl is centered north of the area near 34.2N 61.0W at
09/1500 UTC or 220 NM ENE of Bermuda moving NE at 19 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are
currently around 41 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is noted within 180 NM of the center. Earl is
forecast to accelerate further toward the northeast today. Earl
is then forecast to slow down considerably Saturday night
through Monday. Earl is expected to complete its transition to a
powerful hurricane-force extratropical low on Saturday and then
steadily weaken through early Monday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

Central Tropical Atlantic: A gale-force 1008 mb low pressure
system located about 950 NM east of the Leeward Islands near
20N45W continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that are displaced well to the northeast of the
circulation center due to strong upper-level winds. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 21N-25N between 40W-45W. Peak
seas are currently around 16 ft. A recent scatterometer overpass
showed peak winds of 30-35 kt. The strong upper-level winds are
forecast to persist for the next several days and it is becoming
less likely that a short-lived tropical storm will form.
Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to move
generally west-northwestward near 15 kt across the central
subtropical Atlantic. For more information on this system,
including gale warnings, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical weather outlook at https://www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 26W, from 17N
southward, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N-09N between 26W-302W. Development
of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it
moves westward or west-northwestward around 15 kt across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the middle of next
week.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 45W from 10N-25N
moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described
above as part of the gale-force 1008 mb low at 20N45W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
15N17W to 11N36W. The ITCZ begins at 10N45W to 10N58W. Other
than the convection associated with the tropical wave above,
scattered moderate is noted from 07N-10N east of 18W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a weak 1007 mb low was present near 27N90W with
a surface trough extending south-southwestward to 20N94W.
Another trough extends from the Big Bend area of Florida
southwestward to 28N84W. Both of these features are supported by
a vigorous upper-level trough over the N central Gulf. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the Gulf of
Mexico east of 87W. Winds over the SE Gulf are moderate to fresh
with seas 2-4 ft. Elsewhere winds and seas are quiet outside of
localized thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the surface trough extending from the NE Gulf
to the SW Gulf will migrate NW toward the north-central Gulf
today. A deep layered upper trough across the western Gulf will
support very active weather along and east of the surface trough
through Sat night. Fresh southerly return flow will develop
across the eastern half of the basin tonight into Sat night.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through early next
week as the trough weakens and shifts west ahead of high
pressure building over the northeast Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is forcing only
moderate or lighter trades today.  Seas are 2-4 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean west of 84W,
being forced by the upper-level trough over the  Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas
will prevail across most of the Caribbean through today, and
locally fresh in the NW Caribbean. Very active weather will
continue across the far NW Caribbean and Yucatan Channel through
Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will return to the southeast
Caribbean and off Honduras tonight through Tue, locally strong
in the south-central Caribbean Sat night and again Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Hurricane
Earl and on a gale-force 1008 mb low pressure system located
about 950 NM east of the Leeward Islands.

A weak 1025 mb Azores High is located at 30N30W with surface
ridging extending west-southwestward to 21N75W and east-
northeastward north of the area.  South of the ridge and north
of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, the trades are moderate to fresh
with seas 8-10 ft. South of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, winds are
light with seas 4-7 ft. Aside from the convection associated
with the gale-force low, scattered moderate convection is noted
north of 27N west of 75W being forced by a stationary front
draped along 31N.

For the forecast west of 55W, other than the effects of
departing Earl, weak high pressure will prevail to the southwest
of Earl today. A cold front will move south of 31N late Sat and
extend from 31N55W to 28N65W to 30N73W early Sun before
weakening. Northeasterly swell will follow the front, and spread
across the area waters Sun through Tue.

$$
Landsea
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