[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090932
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Sep 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Earl north of the area near 32.7N 62.4W 963 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving NNE at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105
kt. Peak seas are currently around 41 ft. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is noted from 30N to 36N between 59W
and 66W. Some additional strengthening is forecast through
tonight as it continues to move away from the discussion area.
Associated tropical storm force winds should be confined to north
of 31N by this afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

Central Tropical Atlantic: A gale-force 1008 mb low pressure
system located about 1200 nautical miles east of the Leeward
Islands near 19.5N44W continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms that are displaced well to the northeast of the
circulation center due to strong upper-level winds. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 21N to 26N
between 37W and 43W. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft.
Although the upper-level winds are expected to remain strong, the
low still has some opportunity during the next day or so to become
a short-lived tropical cyclone while moving toward the west-
northwest at about 15 kt into the central subtropical Atlantic.
For more information on this system, including gale warnings,
please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical weather outlook at https://www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 26W, from 16N
southward, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 25W and 30W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 44W, from 21N
southward, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is
described above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western
Africa from near the border of Mauritania and Senegal near 16N16W
to 12N26W to 1008 mb low pressure near 19.5N44W to 17N54W. Other
than the convection associated with the tropical wave above,
scattered moderate is noted from 13N to 16N between the coast of
Africa and 19W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the NE Gulf to the SW Gulf. The
majority of the convection that was occurring east of the trough
has diminished overnight, but likely will redevelop through the
day. Gentle to moderate winds are east of the trough, with light
to gentle winds west of the trough, locally moderate offshore
Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are mainly 1-2 ft outside of any isolated
convection.

For the forecast, the surface trough extending from the NE Gulf
to the SW Gulf will migrate NW toward the north-central Gulf today
and induce a fresh southerly return flow across the eastern half
of the basin tonight into Sat night. Mainly light to gentle winds
will be west of the trough through that time. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish through early next week as the trough
weakens and shifts west ahead of high pressure building over the
northeast Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the NW Caribbean. A few
isolated thunderstorms are offshore Colombia. Moderate to locally
fresh E to SE winds are noted just offshore eastern Honduras.
Moderate E to SE winds are in the SE Caribbean. Mainly light to
gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas west of 70W are 1-3 ft. Seas are
mainly 2-4 ft east of 70W, slightly higher through Atlantic
passages due to northerly swell from Hurricane Earl well north of
the basin.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge north of the area will
maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of
the Caribbean through today, locally fresh in the NW Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will return to the southeast
Caribbean and off Honduras tonight through Tue, locally strong in
the south-central Caribbean Sat night and again Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Hurricane
Earl and on a gale-force 1008 mb low pressure system located
about 1200 nautical miles east of the Leeward Islands.

A weak ridge of high pressure is present south and southwest of
Earl from near 24N55W to the SE Bahamas to near the
Florida/Georgia border. Gentle to moderate winds are found under
the ridge away from Earl. The ridge continues into the central and
eastern Atlantic through 30N40W to north of the Canary Islands.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are between the ridge and monsoon
trough and east of 30W, strongest through the Canary Islands
channels. Seas are 6-9 ft in this area. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail
elsewhere outside of Earl and the gale-force area of low pressure.

A tropical wave located several hundred nautical miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers
and thunderstorms as described above. Development of this system,
if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it moves westward
or west- northwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic through the middle of next week.

For the forecast west of 55W, other than the effects of departing
Earl, weak high pressure will prevail to the southwest of Earl
today. A cold front will move south of 31N late Sat and extend
from 31N55W to 28N65W to 30N73W early Sun before weakening.
Northerly swell will follow the front, affecting the northeastern
and north- central forecast zones Sun and Mon before subsiding
Tue.

$$
Lewitsky
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