[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Sep 09 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Earl is centered near near 30.6N 64.3W, or about 100
nm south-southeast of Bermuda at 09/0000 UTC moving NNE at 14
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Satellite
imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in
banding formation within 150 nm of the center in the NE and
within 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate
convection is south of Earl within 60 nm of 29N65W. Peak seas
are currently at 25 ft as far as 420 nm in the SE quadrant. Earl
is expected to continue in its current motion tonight and
an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, with a turn
toward the northeast tomorrow. Strengthening is still
anticipated and Earl could become a major hurricane by tomorrow.
Thereafter, some weakening and transition into a powerful
extratropical cyclone is forecast on Sat. Swells generated by
Earl are building near Bermuda and are expected to reach the U.S.
east coast tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend.
Please consult products from your local weather office. Also,
please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

Low pressure of 1004 mb is located near 19N42W. The low is along
a tropical wave axis that extends from 22N42W to 16N42W and to
10N42W. Satellite imagery shows a large cluster of numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection to the NE of the low from
20N to 25N between 37W-41W. ASCAT data from earlier today
suggested gale-force winds in the northern semicircle of the low.
Seas with these winds are in the 12-15 ft range. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional
development. However, an increase in organization of the system
could still result in the formation of a short-lived tropical
cyclone in the next day or so as it moves westward to west-
northwestward over the central tropical Atlantic. By this
weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive for development. For more information on this system,
including Gale Warnings, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. This system has a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings,
please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service. Also, please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W from
05N to 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is to its west from 08N to 11N between
23W-25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
22N42W to 16N42W and to 10N42W. No convection is noted along and
near the immediate wave axis, however, please see the Special
Features section above for details regarding low pressure of
1004 mb this is along the wave axis near 19N42W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 15N30W to the 1009 mb
low in the Special Features section to 18N53W. For information
about convection see the Special Features and Tropical Waves
sections.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper-level trough supports a stationary frontal
boundary that is just inland the northern Gulf coast. To its
southeast and south, a trough Ahead of the front, a surface
trough extends from just inland Apalachicola southwest to
broad low pressure near 28N86W 1007 mb and continues
southwestward to 24N89W and to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and east of the
trough north of 25N, and also south of 23N between 89W-94W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere south
of 24N and west of the trough to 96W, and also from 25N to 28N
west of the trough to near 90W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are elsewhere over the Gulf. Otherwise, a rather
weak pressure gradient supports light to gentle northerly winds
north and west of the trough and moderate southwest winds ahead
of the trough in the southeastern part of the gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue to
dominate the Gulf waters through tonight, producing gentle to
locally moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. The
aforementioned surface trough and broad 1007 mb low pressure
will migrate northwestward toward the north-central Gulf early
Fri and induce a fresh southerly return flow across the eastern
half of the basin Fri night into Sat night. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish through Sun as the trough weakens and
shifts west ahead of high pressure building over the northeast
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is being disrupted by
Hurricane Earl, currently located well north of the area. This
pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas
across most of the Caribbean. Otherwise, the eastern extension of
the E Pacific monsoon trough is helping to generate scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean
south of about 13N between northwest Colombia and 79W. Small
isolated showers and thunderstorms moving westward are over the
eastern Caribbean. Otherwise, pretty stable conditions are over
the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the weak Atlantic ridge north of the area will
maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most
of the Caribbean through Fri. Moderate to fresh trade winds will
return to the southeastern Caribbean and off Honduras Fri night
through Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Earl and low pressure near 19N42W that has a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.

Outside the influence of Hurricane Earl and the low pressure
near 19N42W, Atlantic high pressure is sustaining light to
gentle winds and seas at 3-5 ft north of 10N west 45W. Near the
Canary Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh northeast
to east trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft are north of 20N between
the northwest African coast and 45W. To the south, gentle to
moderate monsoonal winds with 6-9 ft seas are south of 20N
between the central African coast and 45W. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds and 5-8 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for
the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is moving offshore the
Florida peninsula from 25N to 30N. Scattered moderate convection
also moving eastward is northeast of northern Florida and
offshore southeastern Georgia to near 77W. An upper-level trough
axis that extends from near 31N33W southwestward to 26N46W, to
an elongated low near 23N48W and to near 16N54W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 14N to 20N
between 54W and the Leeward Islands. Small isolated showers and
thunderstorms are over the central Atlantic waters from 20N to
27N between 55W-68W and elsewhere east of Earl to near 56W.

For the forecast, Earl will strengthen to a major hurricane north
of the area near 35N60W Fri afternoon, then become extratropical
near 43N52W Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will
prevail to the northwest and west of Earl through Fri. A cold
front will move south of 31N late Sat and extend from 31N55W to
28N65W to 30N73W early Sun before weakening. Northerly swell will
follow the front, affecting the northeastern and north-central
forecast zones Sun and Mon before diminishing Tue.

$$
Aguirre
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