[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT31 KNHC 081753
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
200 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

...EARL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH 105 MPH WINDS...
...NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 64.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case this evening.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case later
today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 64.9 West. Earl is moving toward
the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed followed by a
turn to the northeast tonight and tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, and Earl could become a major hurricane later today.  The
hurricane is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical low by
Saturday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this afternoon or evening.  Hurricane conditions are possible on
Bermuda this evening.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches (25 to 75 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and
are expected to reach the U.S. east coast later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend.  Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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