[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Sep 8 03:35:42 CDT 2022
WTNT45 KNHC 080835
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022
Danielle is losing its tropical characteristics. The deep convection
has completely eroded across the southwestern portion of the
circulation. There is no longer an eye-like feature as seen
yesterday, and the system is taking on characteristics more similar
to the comma-shaped cloud shield of a mid-latitude cyclone. The
latest Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that Danielle is no longer
a hurricane, and the initial intensity has been decreased to 60 kt
for this advisory.
The cyclone is expected to quickly complete extratropical transition
through this morning due to higher shear, interaction with a mid- to
upper-level trough just to its west, and cool SSTs along its
forecast track. These conditions are also expected to cause Danielle
to continue weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.
The latest NHC intensity forecast was once again tweaked slightly
lower than the previous one, mainly to adjust for the lower initial
intensity.
Danielle is moving northeastward at 14 kt, and this general motion
should continue for the next few hours. A slow down and
counterclockwise loop is expected to occur later today and Friday
when the cyclone interacts with the trough that is expected to cut
off. After that time, a faster motion to the southeast is forecast,
which should take the extratropical cyclone toward western Europe by
the end of the period. The NHC track forecast was adjusted a little
to the right after the counterclockwise loop due to an overall shift
in the model guidance.
Danielle continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over
the central-north Atlantic. More information can be found in the
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has
information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east
Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web
at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast. Meteo France's High Seas Forecast also includes
information regarding Danielle at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 46.8N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 48.5N 30.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 09/0600Z 49.9N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/1800Z 49.5N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/0600Z 47.2N 31.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/1800Z 44.4N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0600Z 42.8N 21.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 41.5N 14.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 43.3N 9.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Latto
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net
More information about the Tropical
mailing list