[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 080234
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022

Danielle is beginning to feel the effects of an approaching mid-to
upper-level trough just to its west. There has been some erosion of
the deep convection over the southern portion of the circulation,
likely due to increasing southwesterly shear, while the eye has
filled with cloud cover. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates have
overall lowered since the previous advisory, and a blend of these
values suggest the cyclone's initial intensity has decreased to 65
kt.

The cyclone is expected to undergo extratropical transition through
Thursday morning due to the higher shear, interaction with the
trough, and sharply cooler SSTs along its forecast track. These
conditions are also expected to cause Danielle to gradually weaken.
The latest NHC intensity forecast was tweaked slightly lower than
the previous one, and closely follows the various multi-model
consensus values.

Danielle is moving northeastward at 15 kt, and this general motion
should continue through tonight. A slow down and counterclockwise
loop is expected to occur on Thursday and Friday when the cyclone
interacts with the trough that is expected to cut off. After that
time, a faster motion to the southeast is forecast, which should
take the extratropical cyclone toward western Europe by the end of
the period. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the
previous one, and is near the latest consensus aids.

Danielle continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over
the central-north Atlantic.  More information can be found in the
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has
information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east
Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web
at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 45.6N  32.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 47.2N  30.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 49.3N  30.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/1200Z 50.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/0000Z 48.6N  32.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  10/1200Z 45.8N  28.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0000Z 44.0N  24.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0000Z 41.6N  15.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0000Z 42.9N   9.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto
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