[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT31 KNHC 071753
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
200 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

...EARL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 85 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 65.7W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 65.7 West. Earl is moving toward
the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a continued northward motion is
expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the
north-northeast and then northeast with an increase in forward speed
is expected to begin on Thursday and continue through early
Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to
pass to the southeast of Bermuda on Thursday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight and the U.S. east coast shortly thereafter. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
through the weekend.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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