[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 071441
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 PM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022

Danielle is an impressive hurricane for so far north and east in
the Atlantic Ocean, thanks to near-record warm SSTs in the vicinity
and a high-latitude blocking pattern.  Satellite images show that
the cyclone has a large eye with a broken eyewall, although
recently the eyewall convection has degraded a bit.  The current
intensity is set to 70 kt, a blend of the recent TAFB/SAB fixes.  A
recent scatterometer pass also show that the hurricane has grown in
size, and this is reflected in the analysis and size forecast.
Additionally, drifting buoy 41047 has reported 984.7 mb well
outside of the eye, and the central pressure has been lowered to be
in better agreement with this data.

The hurricane is already showing some signs of extratropical
transition, with the cloud pattern starting to elongate on the
northern side.  This is a harbinger of an incoming trough which, in
combination with cold SSTs, should result in a quick extratropical
transition of Danielle in about 24 hours.  Global and regional
hurricane models are in good agreement on a gradual decline in wind
speeds during the forecast period, and little change was made to
the previous NHC intensity forecast.

Danielle is moving northeastward at about 14 kt.  The cyclone is
expected to execute a large counterclockwise loop due to a
mid-latitude trough diving southward from the Canadian Maritimes.
Danielle should merge with this trough and be the dominant feature
as it moves east-southeastward across the north Atlantic.  Only
small changes were made to the last forecast, and the new forecast
is close to the Atlantic tropical cyclone consensus track aid TVCA.

The tropical cyclone continues to produce a large area of very
rough seas over the central-north Atlantic.  More information can be
found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction
Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.  The UK Met Office
also has information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central
and east Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and
on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 43.7N  36.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 45.0N  34.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 47.1N  31.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/0000Z 49.5N  31.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/1200Z 50.1N  33.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  10/0000Z 48.6N  33.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/1200Z 46.6N  30.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/1200Z 42.5N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/1200Z 42.0N  11.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake
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