[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT31 KNHC 070852
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
500 AM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

...EARL FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 65.9W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 65.9 West. Earl is moving toward
the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slow northward motion is
expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the
north-northeast and then northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected to begin on Thursday and continue through early
Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to
pass to the southeast of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane late
Thursday or Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND:  Tropical Storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions through Friday.  Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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