[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 060246
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

Earl's cloud pattern consists of a rather round area of very deep
convection with a few ragged banding features over the eastern
portion of the circulation.  Doppler wind data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigating the tropical cyclone indicate that
the intensity is now near 60 kt and the central pressure has fallen
to around 991 mb.  Thus, Earl is very close to hurricane strength
at this time.  Radar reflectivity images from the aircraft show an
eye-like feature is developing.  The Doppler wind data from the
aircraft also reveal that the vortex is becoming more vertically
aligned than it had been.

During the next few days, the system will be moving through an
area of diffluent anticyclonic upper-level flow, and the
thermodynamic environment should be conducive for intensification.
These factors, along with the current strengthening trend, argue
for continued intensification despite the presence of significant
southwesterly shear through 48 hours.  The official intensity
forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA, prediction
and continues to call for Earl to eventually become a major
hurricane.

Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Earl is moving northward
near 6 kt.  The tropical cyclone should continue to move through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next 48 hours or so.
Thereafter, a broad approaching trough in the southern stream
of the mid-latitude westerlies should cause Earl to turn toward the
north-northeast and then northeast, with some acceleration.  The
official track forecast is just slightly to the left of the
previous NHC track in the 2-3 day time frame and is close to the
latest HCCA solution.

Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
around 3-4 days. However, the size of the wind field of the
tropical cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and
interests on the island should continue to monitor the progress of
the storm closely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 22.9N  65.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 23.6N  65.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 24.7N  65.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 25.8N  65.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 27.3N  65.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 29.0N  64.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 30.8N  63.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 35.5N  58.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 41.0N  53.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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