[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 050235
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022

Danielle has become better organized during the past several hours.
GOES-16 ProxyVis and BD-curve enhanced IR imagery show a much
improved inner core structure with a clear warm 14C eye.  The cloud
pattern also comprises a well-developed outer curved band with -65C
cloud tops.  A blend of the subjective and UW-CIMSS objective
satellite intensity estimates raises the initial intensity to 80 kt
for this advisory.

Danielle is forecast to remain over SSTs of around 26-27C and in a
low-shear environment during the next 36 hours.  As a result,
the statistical SHIPS intensity model and the intensity consensus
aids call for Danielle to maintain its current intensity during
that time, and the NHC forecast follows suit.  Beyond 36 hours,
gradually decreasing oceanic surface temperatures along the
forecast track and increasing southwesterly shear should
weaken the cyclone.  The latest Florida State Cyclone Phase
Analysis shows that the UKMET and the GFS agree with Danielle
commencing an extratropical transition around 48 hours.
The analysis also indicates that Danielle will complete its
transition by 96 hours (Thursday evening), and this
cyclone transformation is shown in the official forecast.

The hurricane's initial motion is estimated to be northeastward
and at a slightly faster pace of 6 kt.  Danielle should continue to
accelerate northeastward during the next 36 hours in response to a
mid-latitude major shortwave trough approaching from the northwest,
out of the Canadian Maritimes.  By Tuesday night, the storm should
turn toward the east-northeast within the mid-latitude westerlies
and continue in this general heading through the period.  The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted north of the previous advisory
beyond 60 hours to agree more with the TVCA and HCCA consensus
solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 39.0N  44.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 39.8N  44.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 40.9N  43.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 41.7N  41.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 42.4N  39.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 43.3N  36.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 44.4N  33.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 46.6N  26.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/0000Z 48.4N  17.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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