[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 032031
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

Danielle's cloud pattern has become better organized during the
past several hours with banding features gaining symmetry around
the center.  However, there are still some dry slots disrupting
the system's inner core.  A blend of the latest satellite intensity
estimates still supports an intensity of 60 kt, but Danielle could
become a hurricane again soon.  An ASCAT pass from several
hours ago was helpful in adjusting the initial 34- and 50-kt wind
radii.

The storm has been moving a little faster to the west at 5 kt and is
back over the same location where it was on Thursday. A continued
slow westward motion is expected into Sunday as the storm remains
steered by a blocking ridge to its north. However, a sharp turn to
the north is forecast by Sunday night followed by a faster motion to
the northeast after that as a trough currently over eastern Canada
approaches Danielle.  The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the left in the short term, but ends up to the east of the
previous track at 96 and 120 h, trending toward the latest
consensus aids.

Danielle is expected to gradually pull away from its own cool SST
wake, and since the atmospheric conditions appear generally
favorable, slow strengthening seems likely during the next day or
two.  Beyond a couple of days, however, sharply cooler SSTs, drier
air, and an increase in vertical wind shear should end the
strengthening trend and induce some weakening.  Danielle is expected
to become fully extratropical by day 5 when it merges with the
approaching trough and moves over SSTs cooler than 20C. The NHC
intensity forecast is again an update of the previous one and
remains in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 38.0N  44.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 38.1N  45.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 38.4N  45.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 39.0N  44.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 39.9N  44.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 40.8N  43.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 41.7N  41.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 44.2N  36.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 46.7N  30.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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