[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 031448
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

Satellite images indicate that Danielle has generally changed little
during the past several hours.  The storm is still producing bands
of deep convection, especially on its north side, but there are dry
slots that have entrained into the south side of the circulation.
The Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55 to 65 kt, and
based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt.

Danielle has been moving very slowly to the west-northwest at 2 kt
and is back over the same location where it was 24-36 hours ago.  A
continued slow west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight
as the storm remains steered by a blocking ridge to its north.
However, a sharp turn to the north is forecast on Sunday followed by
a faster motion to the northeast after that as a trough currently
over eastern Canada approaches Danielle.  Although the models agree
on the overall scenario, there is a fair amount of spread on where
and how sharply the storm is expected to turn.  The NHC track
forecast is a little to the west of the previous one in the short
term, but ends up near the previous forecast from 48 to 120 h, and
it lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Danielle has been over its own cool SSTs wake during the past 12-18
hours, which possibly caused the observed slight weakening.
However, as the storm pulls away from that area and remains in
generally favorable atmospheric conditions, Danielle will likely
restrengthen during the next couple of days.  Beyond that time,
cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in shear should cause some
weakening.  Danielle is expected to become an extratropical cyclone
by the end of the forecast period when it merges with the
approaching trough and moves over SSTs near 20C.  The NHC intensity
forecast is just an update of the previous one and in line with the
HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 38.1N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 38.2N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 38.4N  44.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 38.9N  44.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 39.7N  44.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 40.6N  43.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 41.5N  42.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 43.8N  38.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 46.8N  33.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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