[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 030249
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

Danielle's satellite presentation has degraded further this
evening, highlighted by a loss of the eye.  Dvorak T-numbers have
decreased from TAFB and SAB since earlier today, but their
respective Current Intensity numbers remain 4.0 and 4.5.
Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 65 kt.

Danielle has been stationary for the past 6-12 hours while it
remains in a weak steering environment to the south of a blocking
high over the North Atlantic.  This pattern is expected to hold
firm for the next few days, with the hurricane forecast to meander
through about day 3.  After that time, a deep-layer trough moving
off the coast of Atlantic Canada and the northeastern U.S. should
finally shove Danielle on an accelerating path toward the northeast
on days 4 and 5.  During the acceleration phase, the updated NHC
track forecast is a little north of the previous forecast and lies
close to the HCCA, TVCN, and FSSE multi-model consensus aids.

Danielle's convective and organizational struggles during the past
few hours could be due to upwelling of cooler waters.  While
vertical shear is expected to be generally low 3 days or so, the
hurricane's slow motion is likely to continue to upwell cooler
waters, and therefore only slight strengthening is anticipated
during that time.  Danielle is expected to move over colder waters
after day 3, which should induce some weakening toward the end of
the forecast period.  Global models also suggest that the
cyclone could be undergoing extratropical transition by the end
of the forecast period.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is very
similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 37.9N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 38.0N  43.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 37.9N  44.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 38.1N  44.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 38.7N  44.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 39.4N  44.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 40.2N  43.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 42.1N  41.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 45.5N  36.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net