[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Sep 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Danielle is centered near 37.9N 43.4W at 02/0900
UTC or 770 nm W of the Azores moving E at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate convection is
from 37N to 39N between 35W and 45W. The storm is forecast to
meander over the open Atlantic during the next couple of days.
Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Danielle is forecast to become a hurricane later this
morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.

East of the Leeward Islands: A broad area of low pressure of 1008
mb is located along a tropical wave several hundred nautical
miles east of the Lesser Antilles near 17N56W. Although
environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any
additional development of the system over the next few days would
lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is
expected to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent
waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains may occur over portions of the Leeward
Islands during the next couple of days, and interests in that area
should monitor the progress of the system. Please read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center
at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 27W, from 08N to 23N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. A low pressure of 1006 mb is along the wave near
19N. This system is moving into an area of less favorable
environmental conditions, and significant development is not
anticipated.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from 18N16W to 20N25W to 11N45W to 17N56W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 10N and
between 30W and 47W, and from 06N to 14N between 48W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico
supporting mainly light to gentle return flow with seas in the 1-2
ft range, except in the south-central Gulf where a thermal trough
enhances the winds to moderate to fresh speeds with seas to 4 ft.
Otherwise, a middle level trough supports an area of showers and
tstms in the Louisiana coastal waters while upper level divergence
supports similar shower activity in the NE basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse nightly over
portions of the SW Gulf through Sat night due to a diurnal trough
developing over the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, high pressure
will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through
early next week maintaining gentle to locally moderate winds and
slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An elongated upper level low over Hispaniola and Cuba is
generating scattered showers and tstms in the Windward Passage.
Similar shower activity is being enhanced by the E Pacific monsoon
trough in the SW basin and off the coast of Belize by a
tropical wave. Otherwise, moderate NE to E winds remain in the
central Caribbean between 70W and 80W with seas to 3 ft. In the
far NW basin, moderate to fresh SE winds prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will
support moderate to fresh trades across the central and NW basin,
including the Mona Passage through Sat. Afterward, gentle to
moderate winds will dominate these regions through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves section above
for more information on tropical disturbances in the Atlantic
with potential for tropical cyclone development.

A weak high pressure over the western tropical Atlantic maintains
generally tranquil conditions across the area. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly trade winds are noted S of 23N and W of
60W, along with seas of 2-4 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic
winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail N of 23N. A surface trough
stretches from 31N59W to 25N62W and a few shallow showers are
present near the trough axis.

For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms
associated with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have recently decreased
in coverage. Although environmental conditions remain only
marginally conducive, any additional development of the system
over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical
depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-
northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward
Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across
much of the area through early next week.

$$
Ramos
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