[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Sep 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic: A 1008 mb area of low pressure is located
several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near
15.5N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
observed from 13N to 19N and between 47W and 54W. Similar
convection is also found from 06N to 10N and between 50W and 55W.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to
strong winds are occurring in the northern and eastern quadrant.
Seas are 6-8 ft. Although environmental conditions remain only
marginally conducive, any additional development of the system
over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical
depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-
northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward
Islands. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 48 hours, and a high chance over the next 5
days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A broad 1006 mb area of low pressure
located over and to the north of the Cabo Verde Islands near
16.5N22W. Scattered moderate convection is present to the west of
the low pressure. While surface observations indicate pressures are
low in this area, the associated shower activity is currently
poorly organized. There is still a potential for the system to
become a short-lived tropical depression within the next day or so
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for further
development. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 48 hours and also over the next 5 days. Please
read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for additional information.

Central Subtropical Atlantic: A 1017 mb area of low pressure
is located about 800 nautical miles west-southwest of the
westernmost Azores, near 38N46W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted over the eastern semicircle, becoming better organized over
the past several hours. If current trends continue, a tropical or
subtropical depression could form later today while the system
drifts generally eastward. This feature has a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please read
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at
https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for additional
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NW Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 86W, south of
21N, drifting W, very slowly at 5 kt or less. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is found from 13N to 18N and
between 80W and 85W. The wave is also helping to enhance showers
and thunderstorms over Central America.

A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave has its axis near 94W, south of
21N, across southern Mexico and into the eastern Pacific Ocean,
drifting W, very slowly around 5 kt. Nearby convection is
confined to land and over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to a 1006 mb low pres near 16.5N22WW to
11N35W to a 1008 mb low pres near 15.5N51W to 07N57W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 05N to 11N and between 23W
and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure regime continues to dominate the Gulf of
Mexico. A surface trough continues to stretch from the Florida
panhandle near Apalachee Bay to the central Gulf near 25N89W. A
few showers are noted near the trough axis with more robust
convection occurring over northern and central Florida, spilling
into the NE Gulf nearshore waters. Similarly, storms that
developed over eastern Yucatan are progressing across the eastern
Bay of Campeche on a weakening trend. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds prevail across the basin, except for light to
gentle anticyclonic winds in the eastern Gulf and N of 28N. Seas
are 1-3 ft in the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse over the SW Gulf
Fri and Sat nights due to a diurnal trough developing over the
Yucatan. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the weather
pattern across the Gulf waters through the early next week
maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section,
a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SW
Caribbean Sea, off NW Colombia. The rest of the Caribbean Sea
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to strong easterly
trade winds are occurring in the NW and south-central Caribbean
as shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to
moderate trades are prevalent over the remainder of the basin.
Seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in the NW and central Caribbean,
while seas of 2-4 ft are found in the eastern and SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will
support moderate to fresh trades across the S central Caribbean
through Fri. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will reach
moderate to fresh speeds Thu through Fri night. Elsewhere, slight
winds and seas will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on areas of low pressure near 16.5N22W and 15.5N51W
with the potential to develop into tropical cyclones.

A weak 1018 mb high pressure system remains positioned between
the Bahamas and Bermuda. This patterns sustains light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across a good portion of the western tropical
Atlantic, except for moderate to locally fresh easterly trades in
the offshore waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A weak surface
trough extends from 31N58W to 26N60W and a few showers are noted
near the trough axis, with most of the convection N of 30N. The
rest of the western tropical Atlantic enjoys fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring S of the
monsoon trough and E of 30W to the African coast. Seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft. Farther north, fresh to strong NE winds are
affecting the waters offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, and the
water passages of the Canary Islands, along with seas of 3-6 ft.
In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, winds are moderate or
weaker and seas are 2-5 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms associated
with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
east of the Leeward Islands have gradually increased in
organization over the past day or so. Although environmental
conditions remain only marginally conducive, only slight
additional development of the system over the next few days would
lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is
forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, reaching the
far SE forecast waters west of 55W on Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through early
next week.

$$
DELGADO
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