[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 010545
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands
have gradually increased in organization over the past day or so.
Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive,
any additional development of the system over the next few days
would lead to the formation of a tropical depression.  The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, toward
the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite imagery and surface observations show that a broad area
of lower pressure is located over and to the north of the Cabo
Verde Islands.  While surface observations indicate pressures are
low in this area, the associated shower activity is currently
poorly organized. There is still a potential for the system to
become a short-lived tropical depression within the next day or so
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for further
development. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy
rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 800 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores has become
better organized during the past several hours.  If current trends
continue, a tropical or subtropical depression could form later
today while the system drifts generally eastward.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven
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