[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS AND
THE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 78.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Bay Islands of Honduras, plus a
Tropical Storm Watch for the entire north coast of the country.

The government of Belize has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
entire coast of Belize from north of Puerto Barrios Guatemala
northward to south of Chetumal Mexico.

The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Caribbean coast of Guatemala from the border with Honduras
westward to Puerto Barrios.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Herrero.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* Belize coast from north of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* Guatemala from border with Honduras to Puerto Barrios
* Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Herrero.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 78.4 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days.  On
the forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica today,
south of the Cayman Islands tomorrow, then move near or over the Bay
Islands of Honduras early on Wednesday and approach Belize later on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and are possible along the coast
of Belize on Wednesday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Jamaica today.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
on the coast of Honduras beginning Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of:

* 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 8 inches across portions
of Belize and the Bay Islands of Honduras.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across portions
of Northern Honduras, Jamaica, Guatemala and the eastern Yucatan
peninsula.
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands, eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could produce flash floods from northern Honduras
northward to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize in areas of onshore winds and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days, and begin to
affect Central America tomorrow. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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