[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly developed Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen is centered
near 15.7N 73.6W at 30/2100 UTC, or 230 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica
moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is evident with 75 nm of the center
of PTC Fifteen. The strongest winds along with rough seas are
evident within 150 nm to the north of the center, south of Haiti.
PTC Fifteen is expected gradually intensify as it continues to
move WNW for the next day or so, then continue intensify possibly
to hurricane strength as it moves more westward through late
Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 18N southward,
moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 08N to 10N between 45W and 48W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 10N13W to 09N22W to
07N30W to 07N48W. The monsoon trough extends across the far
southwest Caribbean from 11N75W to 10N83W. Scattered moderate
from 06N to 09N between 55W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front reaches from northern Gulf coast near the
Florida/Alabama border southwestward toward 22N90W, then is
stationary to Veracruz, Mexico. Mostly gentle winds and slight to
moderate wave heights persist across the basin. No significant
convection is noted.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Panama City to
just north of the Yucatan peninsula by Mon morning where it will
stall before gradually lifting north along the northern Gulf by
Tue night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
will develop across the western half of the basin Mon night
through Tue with locally strong winds in the Texas offshore
waters due to the development of a low pressure that will
dissipate Tue night. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will
dominate the basin the remainder of the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen in the Central Caribbean Sea.

Outside of the strong to tropical storm force winds and rough
seas south of Haiti in the northern quadrant of Potential
Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. A few showers
may be active over portions of the northeast Caribbean.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move
to 16.0N 74.9W Mon morning, 16.3N 76.6W Mon afternoon, 16.7N
78.8W Tue morning, 17.2N 81.3W Tue afternoon, 17.5N 83.6W Wed
morning, and 17.4N 85.7W Wed afternoon. Fifteen will move inland
near 16.4N 89.5W Thu afternoon. Otherwise, with exception of
light to gentle variable winds in the southwest basin, moderate
to locally fresh winds are forecast elsewhere through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends east of the Bahamas from 30N64W to
21N67W. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas with
northerly swell are noted west of this trough. Moderate to fresh
E winds are funneling south of 22N, along the north coast of
Hispaniola. Farther east, 1018 mb high pressure centered near
27N43W is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas farther south into the tropics, south of 20N between 35W and
65W. Moderate winds are noted elsewhere west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough east of the
Bahamas will continue to support moderate to locally fresh N to
NE winds N of 27N and W of 67W through this evening. A weak cold
front will develop from that low tonight into Monday and move
across the waters N of 27N and E of 67W through Wed early in the
evening when the front is expected to move E of the area before
dissipating. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds
will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the
Windward Passage through Thu.

$$
Christensen
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