[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Oct 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Caribbean: A broad area of low pressure is present over
the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for gradual development over the next few days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward across the Caribbean
Sea. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
across the central and northeastern Caribbean Basin, including
eastern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin and Leeward Islands.
Latest satellite scatterometer and wave model data reveal fresh
easterly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas north of the low, over the
north-central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles,
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
through this weekend. There is a MEDIUM chance for this
disturbance to develop further within the next 48 hours. For more
information, please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 18N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 05N to 10N between 45W and 48W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is largely over the African continent based on
the latest analysis. An ITCZ extends west-southwestward from
06N23W to 07N45W, and from 07N48W to near Trinidad and Tobago.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen up to 160 nm
along either side of both ITCZ segments.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front curves southwestward from New Orleans, Louisiana to
near Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present along and up to 70 nm east and southeast
of the front. Gentle to moderate northerly winds with 3 to 5 ft
seas exist behind the front. Moderate with locally fresh southerly
winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are present east of the front across
the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas
at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will reach from the Florida Panhandle
to central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon, which should allow
northerly winds behind the front to end Sun night. It is expected
to dissipate in the eastern Gulf by Sun night into Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
weather and possible tropical cyclone development in the Central
Caribbean.

Other than the north-central basin mentioned in the Special
Features section, gentle to moderate ESE to SW winds and seas at 3
to 5 ft are evident at the eastern and south-central basin. Gentle
to moderate northerly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the
western basin.

For the forecast, at a minimum, even if the broad low pressure does
not develop into a tropical cyclone, it can still produce gusty
winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean waters
this weekend and into early next week. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly trades should return to the central and eastern basin by
midweek next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough reaches southward from near Bermuda
across 31N64W to near Haiti. Scattered moderate convection is
noted east of the trough axis north of 20N between 58W and 65W. A
broad upper-level low at the central Atlantic near 20N44W is
triggering scattered moderate convection from 15N to 23N between
40W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

The 1021 mb mid-Atlantic high near 30N47W is supporting light to
gentle winds north of 25N between the northwest African coast and
60W. Within this area, seas at 6 to 8 ft in northerly swell are
found east of 40W, while 4 to 6 ft seas are present west of 40W.
Farther west, gentle to moderate with locally fresh SW to NW to
NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident north of 20N between
60W and the Georgia-Florida coast. To the south, gentle to
moderate with locally fresh NNE to ESE trades and seas at 6 to 9
ft are noted from 08N to 25N between the central African coast and
Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE
trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue
to occur between 68W and 65W in the western Atlantic east of the
Bahamas. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail across the Atlantic
waters W of 70W. These winds will persist through Mon morning.
Northerly swell produced by these winds will enter the offshore
Atlantic waters of Florida and the Bahamas this evening. The
swell will bring moderate to rough seas in waters N of 29N and W
of 60W before subsiding by Mon night.

$$

Chan
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