[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Caribbean: A broad area of low pressure over the central
Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while
the disturbance moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over
the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend. Seas
are currently 4-6 ft with fresh winds. This disturbance has a
MEDIUM (50%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within
the next 48 hours and a HIGH (70%) chance of developing within
the next five days. For more information, please see the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 44W south of
20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant showers and
thunderstorms are evident near the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

There is no monsoon trough over the Atlantic at this time. The
ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 08N41W, and from 06N45W to the coast
of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity
of the boundary.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Houma, Louisiana to Veracruz, Mexico.
Strong winds and rough seas are currently within 60 nm of the
coast of Veracruz, where a large outflow boundary was observed on
an earlier satellite imagery. Winds and seas are diminishing
rapidly however as the airmass modifies and the front weakens.
Moderate NW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of
the front. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are noted ahead of the
front over the northeast Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gentle
breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will reach the Florida Panhandle
to central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon, then dissipate in
the eastern Gulf by Sun night into Mon. Winds and seas will
increase Tue over the northwest Gulf as another boundary moves
into the region, but beyond that high pressure north of the area
will maintain moderate easterly winds and moderate seas across
the basin through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
disturbance in the Central Caribbean.

Broad 1007 mb low pressure is centered over the south-central
Caribbean near 14N70W. A surface trough extends from just
southeast of Jamaica to near Blanquilla Island in the southeast
Caribbean. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted
north of the trough across much of the northwest Caribbean. Fresh
E winds are evident in this region with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to
moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, at a minimum, even if the broad low does not
develop into a tropical cyclone, strong to near- gale force
winds and rough seas are likely across the north- central
Caribbean through Mon, spreading into the northwest Caribbean
through mid week. Moderate trades and seas will follow the low
across the eastern and central Caribbean through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 mb low is centered north of the area close to Bermuda at
33N66W. A trough reaches to the southwest of the low toward the
central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate NE winds are evident west of
this trough, although stronger winds are noted farther north off
Georgia and the Carolinas. Associated northerly swell from these
winds are reaching into the waters east of northeast Florida,
where combined seas are 5 to 7 ft.

Farther east, a mid to upper trough extends from 31N66W to
central Hispaniola. A few showers are noted within 180 nm east of
this feature. 1020 mb high pressure is centered east of that near
29N48W, with a trough farther east reaching from 31N31W to
29N43W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are note
north of 20N, and moderate to fresh trades with 6 to 8 ft seas
south of 20N.

For the west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh NE winds will
persist west of 70W through Mon morning. Northerly swell from
these winds will enter the forecast waters this evening. The
swell will bring moderate to rough seas in waters north of 29N
and west of 60W. The swell will likely subside by Mon night.

$$
Christensen
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