[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291918
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Oct 29 2022

Updated Caribbean Special Feature with the 1800 UTC Tropical
Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: At 1500 UTC, a cold front extends
from the coast of Louisiana near 29.3N91.5W to the coast of
Veracruz near 19.6N96.5W. Gale force winds are currently within 60
nm of the coast of Veracruz in the W Bay of Campeche. Seas
currently 6-8 ft and are expected to build to 8-10 ft through Sat
evening. Gale force winds are expected to end by this evening. Please
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more information.

Central Caribbean: A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean
Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Caribbean Sea.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the disturbance. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend. Seas are
currently 4-6 ft with fresh winds. This disturbance has a MEDIUM
(50%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next
48 hours and a HIGH (70%) chance of developing within the next
five days. For more information, please see the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The latest satellite and model data support analyzing a single
tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic, instead of the
two features that have been depicted in previous analyses. With
that, a tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 43W, from
05N to 19N, with an uncertain westward motion of 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers are near the northern terminus of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

There is no monsoon trough over the Atlantic at this time. The
ITCZ extends from 07N22W to 08N41W, and from 06N45W to the coast
of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity
of the boundary.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
Gale Warning in the western Bay of Campeche.

At 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the coast of Louisiana
near 29.3N91.5W to the coast of Veracruz near 19.6N96.5W.
Elsewhere outside the Gale Warning area, moderate to fresh SE to S
winds are ahead of the front with seas of 2-4 ft. A couple of observations
from earlier this morning indicated peak winds of 25-30 kt near
the frontal boundary. In the lee of the cold front, fresh to
locally strong NW winds are noted with 4-6 ft seas. Convective
activity has diminished to scattered showers in the north-central
Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northerly winds are
expected behind the front through this evening. Brief gales are
expected across the Veracruz area this morning and will end by the
evening hours. The front will reach the Florida Panhandle to
central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon. The front will dissipate
in the eastern Gulf Sun night into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean.

The central and western Caribbean are currently experiencing
light to gentle northerly winds per the latest scatterometer data,
with 2-4 ft seas. NE winds are moderate in the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the disturbance will remain the dominant
feature in the basin, producing gusty winds and moderate seas,
as it passes through the central Caribbean waters this weekend
and into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A few weak surface troughs extend into the W Atlantic. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the
tropical Atlantic, around the subtropical Atlantic high centered
near 32N47W. Seas are 4-6 ft W of 55W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere in
open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a 1010 mb surface low north of the
area persists, extending a weak trough south into the W Atlantic.
Upper- level winds are forecast to increase over the system later
today and tonight, and further development is not anticipated
after that time. This system has a low chance of development in
the next 48 hours and 5 days. This low will interact with a
frontal system north of the area, bringing moderate to locally
fresh NE winds across the forecast waters W of 70W. These winds
will persist through Sun morning. This system will also bring
moderate NE swell across the western Atlantic W of 65W and is
expected to subside by Mon.

$$
Mahoney
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