[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291208 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 29 2022

Updated to add a Special Feature for the broad area of low
pressure in the Eastern Caribbean

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 30N94W to
22N98W. The front will continue moving E across the basin reach
the southwestern Gulf this morning. Fresh to strong northerly
winds following the front will increase to gale-force in the
western Bay of Campeche, offshore from near Veracruz, Mexico late
Sat morning. Seas are expected to build and reach 8 to 10 ft
through Sat evening. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued
by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for more
information.

Eastern Caribbean: A broad area of low pressure over the eastern
Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the
disturbance moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the
central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend. Seas are
currently 4-6 ft with fresh winds. This disturbance has a MEDIUM
(50%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next
48 hours and a HIGH (70%) chance of developing within the next
five days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 15 1o 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 03N to 07N between 33W to 36W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 19N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Much drier air at low to mid levels
are hindering significant convection near this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast near
the Mauritania-Senegal border to southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands at 15N22W. The ITCZ extends from 08N24W to 08N36W, then
resumes from 07N39W to 07N53W. Scattered showers are noted
along the segments of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning for the western Bay of Campeche.

A cold front extends across the NW Gulf from a 1012 mb low near
30N94W to 22N98W. Scattered moderate convection prevails N of 24N
between 88W-93W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5 to
7 ft are evident behind the front. Fresh to strong southerly
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen near and up to 180 nm south of
the low. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and
seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds prevail behind
the front through this afternoon. Brief gales across the Veracruz
area will develop late this morning and end by the evening hours.
The front will reach the Florida Panhandle to central Bay of
Campeche by Sun afternoon. The front will stall and dissipate in
the eastern Gulf Sun night into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean.

A deep-layered trough extends southward from Hispaniola to
northern Venezuela. Aided by divergent southerly flow aloft,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present across
the eastern basin, including the Windward and ABC Islands.
Moderate to fresh E to SE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted
over the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds with 3 to
5 ft are noted at the central basin. Light to gentle with
moderate NNE to NE trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the upper trough across the central Caribbean
will lift northward tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A deep-layered trough extends southward from a 1012 mb low west
of Bermuda to near Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring north of 20N between 64W and 69W. An
upper-level low near 21N45W is triggering scattered moderate
convection from 16N to 24N between 41W and 46W.

Light to gentle winds are supported by the 1021 mb Mid-Atlantic
High near 32N48W. 6 to 8 ft seas in northerly swell are present
north of 17N between northwest African coast and 40W. To the
west, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are
found north of 20N between 40W and the Georgia-Florida coast.
Farther south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E
trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist north of 10N between the
central African coast and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh
ENE to ESE trades with 6 to 8 ft seas are evident from the equator
to 15N between 30W and 59W. Light to gentle monsoonal and
southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west 55W, the surface trough over the
southwestern Atlantic continues to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly between 64W-69W. The 1012 mb surface low
prevails along the northern portion of the trough north of the
forecast waters. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain
only marginally conducive, and any additional development should
be slow to occur over the next day or so. By tonight, upper-level
winds are forecast to become even less favorable, and the low is
expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal system.
Therefore, development after that time is not anticipated. This
system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5
days. This system will eventually bring moderate to rough seas in
NE swell through the weekend west of 70W.

$$
ERA/Mahoney
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