[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 271130
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure extending from the eastern Caribbean Sea
northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce a broad
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A surface low
pressure system is forecast to emerge along the northern portion of
the trough axis later today or tonight, and environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for some subtropical development. A
subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days
while the system moves northward, then meanders to the west or
southwest of Bermuda. Over this weekend, upper-level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern
Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern portion
of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward
into the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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