[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure stretching from the eastern Caribbean Sea
northward through the Mona Passage to the southwestern Atlantic
along 69W to 70W continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The northern part of this
trough axis is expected to yield the formation of a surface
cyclone tonight. Environmental conditions then appear marginally
conducive for subtropical development, and a subtropical
depression could form over the next couple of days while the
system initially moves northward and then meanders to the west or
southwest of Bermuda. By this weekend, upper-level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for development. This system has
a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Caribbean Sea Heavy Rainfall:
A deep-layer trough over the central Caribbean has become
stationary from eastern Hispaniola to the central Caribbean
overnight. This feature continues to support active thunderstorms
across the Caribbean between 62W and 69W this morning. A tropical
wave along 67W is moving westward across the eastern Caribbean.
These two systems will combine to produce numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea, including Puerto
Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic through
Friday. Excessive heavy rainfall will likely result in localized
flooding across portions of these islands through at least Thu
evening. Residents in these locations should monitor this
developing situation closely and stay informed with their local
weather offices and authorities. The trough and tropical wave will
merge by Fri and shift westward and weaken. Over the weekend, an
area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern
Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form by early next week while the disturbance moves generally
westward or west-northwestward across the central Caribbean Sea.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 44W-45W from 05N to 15N moving
W near 15 kt.The wave is tilted NNE to SSW. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is occurring across northern portions of the
wave, from 11N-16N between 41W and 46W. night scatterometer data
showed moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are on either side
of the wave axis between 12N and 17N.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 67W from 09N to 19N,
moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave is interacting with a deep-layered
trough along 69W-70W, resulting in scattered to locally numerous
moderate to strong convection from 10N to 14.5N between 62W and
67.5W, and from 16N northward across Puerto Rico and into the
adjacent Atlantic between 66W and 68W. The interaction of these
features is expected to lead to a merger along about 70W on Fri.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 06N28W
to 10N42W, then resumes from 09N47W to 10N61W. Scattered to
numerous strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N E of 26W to
the W coast of Africa. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is about the ITCZ, from 06N to 08.5N between 29W and
41W. A large area of similar convection is also noted behind the
tropical wave along 44W-45W, from 12.5N to 19N between 30W and
40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches from just N of Tampa Bay to 23N90W, where
it becomes stationary and continues on to the Mexican coast near
22N98W. Widely scattered shallow convection is noted within 90 nm
N of the stationary front to the W of 93.5W. Gentle to moderate
NE to E winds are north of the front, with seas of 3-4 ft. Light
to gentle winds and wave heights of 2-4 ft are noted southeast of
the front.

For the forecast, the front will stall today then dissipate late
tonight as the western portions lifts N toward the Texas waters.
Moderate to fresh return flow will develop across the NW Gulf
tonight into Fri morning ahead of the next approaching cold front.
This next front is expected to push off the Texas coast late Fri
afternoon and move SE through the weekend. Strong N winds will
follow the front W of 94W through Sat afternoon, with brief gales
expected across the Veracruz area late morning Sat through the
afternoon. The front is expected to reach the Florida Panhandle to
central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon before stalling and
gradually dissipating.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
potential for heavy rain in the eastern Caribbean Sea through
at least Fri. A moist and unstable atmosphere will persist across
the area through the weekend due to a persistent upper level
trough across the central Caribbean and its interaction with a
tropical wave.

Light to gentle NE winds are over most of the basin W of 70W.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas in the 6-8 ft range
prevail E of the Lesser Antilles to about 50W. Fresh to locally
strong SE winds prevail across the eastern Caribbean E of the
tropical wave, where seas are 4 to 7 ft in E and SE swell.
Scattered strong convection trails the tropical wave to the S of
14N and extends into the tropical Atlantic waters to 56W.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will
maintain gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the basin W of
70W through Fri. A deep layered upper trough N to S across the
central Caribbean will drift westward through Sat then lift
northward into the Atlantic Sun. A tropical wave along 67W
continues to interact with this feature to produce scattered to
numerous thunderstorms between 63W and 68W early this morning. The
tropical wave will move slowly W through Sat and gradually merge
with the upper trough along 70W. An area of low pressure is
expected to form over the eastern Caribbean Sea this weekend.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by early next
week while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-
northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about
convection associated with a trough of low pressure stretching
from the eastern Caribbean Sea northward to the southwestern
Atlantic.

A dissipating stationary front extends from near 31N20W to
25N37W to 301N53W. Light to gentle winds are noted in the wake of
the front with an area of mainly moderate E to SE winds between
47W-52W. A 1019 mb high pressure center is just to the north of
the Canary Islands near 29N15W. North swell generated N of the
cold front will produce wave heights of 8-12 ft roughly to the
waters north of 29N and east of 45W through tonight. Mainly
moderate NE winds prevail S of 23N between Africa and 40W, where
seas are 5-7 ft. Fresh easterly winds prevail across the
tropical Atlantic between 48W and the Lesser Antilles, where seas
are 5-8 ft.

For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected to persist across the Atlantic waters between 62W
and 68W today, supported by a deep layered upper trough along
about 70W. At the surface, a trough of low pressure stretches from
Hispaniola northward along 69W-70W. These features are expected
to remain nearly stationary through early Sat and maintain active
thunderstorms to the E. Low pressure is expected to develop along
the trough to the N of 29N by Fri. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual subtropical development of this
system, and a subtropical depression could form during the next
couple of days, as this system drifts northward. The system is
then forecast to meander over the subtropical western Atlantic to
the west or southwest of Bermuda Sat through Mon. Associated large
NE swell will impact the northern waters W of 70W Fri night
through the weekend.

$$
Stripling
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