[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Oct 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
Fresh to strong northerly winds behind a cold front that extends
from southeastern Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico have recently
increased to gale force in the far southwestern Gulf, over the
waters of the western Bay of Campeche. Wave heights with these
winds are expected to peak to 9 ft this evening and early
tonight. As the gradient behind the front slackens some later
tonight, this will allow for these winds to diminish to strong
speeds. Please read the High Sea Forecast issued by NHC at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Eastern Caribbean Sea Heavy Rainfall:
A deep-layer trough currently northeast of eastern Cuba and
extending south-southwestward to near northwest Colombia is
advecting moisture across Hispaniola. It will drift eastward to
north of Puerto Rico and spread moisture over the island through
Wed. Meanwhile, a tropical wave just east of the Lesser Antilles
will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight through early
Thu. These ingredients will combine this week leading to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean
Seas, including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Dominican
Republic. Excessive heavy rainfall could result in localized
flooding across portions of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and
eastern Hispaniola through Thu. Residents in these locations
should monitor this developing situation closely and stay
informed with their local weather offices and authorities.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W/41W from
from 03N to 15N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm either
side of the wave from 06N to 10N. Latest ASCAT data shows
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 06N to 11N
between 35W-38W. Wave heights with these winds are in the 7-9 ft
range due to a combination of wind generated waves and a long-
period northeast swell.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is just east of the Lesser
Antilles with its axis along 60W/61W from 06N to 19N. It is
moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 180 nm east of the wave from 13N to 15N and within
120 nm west of the wave from 13N to 16N. Latest ASCAT satellite
scatterometer data show fresh easterly winds with 7 to 9 ft seas
near and east of the wave from 11N to 17N between 55W-59W.

The previous central Caribbean Sea tropical wave that was along
77W is analyzed as a trough at 18Z. See Caribbean Sea section
for information on this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the African
coast near Bissau to 11N20W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to east of a tropical
wave near 08N39W. It resumes at 07N42W northwest to 09N52W and to
just east of a tropical wave near 13N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 43W-55W,
within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 35W-37W and from 08N
to 13N between 30W-35W.

The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough
protruded into the southwestern Caribbean Sea roughly along
10N/11N and to near northwest Colombia. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are near the trough, and over the interior sections
of Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section gale force winds west of a
cold front over the western Bay of Campeche.

A cold front is analyzed from southeastern Louisiana to inland
Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are ahead of the front to near 87W and from 25N to 29N.
Convergent southerly winds farther southeast is creating similar
conditions at the central Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds
and wave heights of 6-8 ft are behind the front over the
northwestern Gulf. Fresh northerly winds with wave heights of 5-7
ft are near the front over the north-central Gulf. A surface
ridge extends from a 1015 mb high over central Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula. This southwestward to 25N92W and to the south
curves southwestward from just west of New Orleans to just south
of the Texas-Mexico border.s feature is supporting gentle to
moderate southerly winds along with wave heights of 2-4 ft for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, aside from the gale force winds that are over
the western Bay of Campeche behind the aforementioned cold front,
fresh to strong northwest to north winds are elsewhere behind the
front. Moderate southerly winds are east of the front and north
of 26N. Occasional and local gusts to gale force just behind the
front are possible this evening, while sustained gales off
Veracruz, Mexico in the western Bay of Campeche will occur this
evening. This front will reach from Mobile Bay, Alabama to the
western Bay of Campeche by late this evening, then will slow down
and weaken, gradually dissipating Wed night into Thu. Moderate
to fresh return flow will develop across NW portions Thu night
through Fri, ahead of the next approaching cold front, which
should move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. This next front
may stall and weaken in the central Gulf this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for potential heavy rain
across the eastern Caribbean Sea this week. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the
Caribbean Basin.

What was previously a tropical wave along 77W is now analyzed as
a surface trough from 18N71W to 15N73W and to 12N74W. Enhanced
by the deep-layer trough and associated moisture mentioned in
the Special Features section, numerous heavy showers and
scattered thunderstorms continue to flaring up over the central
Caribbean Sea, including southern Hispaniola. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds with wave heights of 3-5 ft seas are over
the central part of the seas and Gulf of Honduras. Mainly gentle
easterly trades and wave heights of 2-4 ft are over the rest of
basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the regional
Atlantic and Caribbean will maintain gentle to moderate trade
winds and light to moderate seas through early Wed. A deep layered
trough is expected to develop across the central Caribbean today
through Wed and lift northward Thu and Fri. A tropical wave along
59W will move westward and become absorbed within the trough along
67W Wed night through Thu. These features will induce numerous
thunderstorms across the eastern half of the basin later today
through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and increasing
east swell are moving into Tropical Atlantic waters, behind the
tropical wave, and will gradually shift into the far eastern
Caribbean tonight through Wed. An area of low pressure could form
over the eastern Caribbean Sea by early this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp deep-layer trough stretches from near 31N77W to an
elongated upper-level low near 27N73W and continues to eastern
Cuba and to the Caribbean Sea to near northwest Colombia.
This extensive feature is causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from the central and southeast Bahamas northward
between 67W-76W. An upper-level low near 29N56W is producing
scattered moderate convection north of 25N between 47W-57W. A
modest cold front extends from a 1010 mb low that is north of the
area near 35N21W, southwestward to 29N30W, westward to 29N40W
and northwest to

The weak Atlantic ridge is sustaining light to gentle winds and
wave heights of 3-5 ft north of 22N between the northwest African
coast and 65W. To the west, gentle to moderate northeast to east
winds along with wave heights of 4-6 ft are north of 20N between
65W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Further south outside the
influence of the tropical waves, gentle to moderate northeast to
east winds and wave heights of 6-9 ft are north of 08N between
the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds and wave heights of 5-7 ft due to southerly
swell remain over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms continue across the Atlantic waters between 65W and
75W, associated with a deep layer  upper-level trough. The
trough will drift slowly eastward through Thu and produce very
active weather. Low pressure is expected to develop near 28N67W
by Thu night and move to near 31N68W Fri night where it will
become stationary through the upcoming weekend.

$$
Aguirre
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