[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms have become isolated near a small and well-
defined area of low pressure located about 20 miles southwest of
Bermuda. If the associated shower and thunderstorm activity can
increase further near the center, the system could still become a
tropical depression later today. After that time, the system is
expected to continue moving northward towards cooler waters and
into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds, which should limit
additional development. Regardless of development, periods of
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over Bermuda
though this afternoon. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the
progress of this system.

This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W/36W from
03N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the wave, from
04.5N-11N between 30W-39W. This appears to be a low amplitude wave
and will initiate active convection along the ITCZ during the
next few days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned westward,
to along 59W, from 05N to 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 16N-20N
between 50W-57W. Similar convective activity is from 09N-19N
between 54W-60W. Recent scatterometer data indicated a surface
trough associated with this wave, and an area of fresh to strong
E to SE winds near the northern end of the wave.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 75W/76W
extending from eastern Cuba to northern Colombia. It is drifting
westward. The wave, combined with an upper-level trough, is
helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms from
northwest Colombia northward to Hispaniola. A deep layered
extending from the adjacent Atlantic along 75W extends SW into the
western Caribbean and is expected to absorb this wave during the
next 24 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 08N17.5W. The ITCZ continues to 08N17.5W to 07N23W to
08.5N31W then it resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N38W to
09N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-14N between
18W-30W. Aside from convection described above with tropical
waves, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N-11.5N
between 30W-55W.

The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the southwestern Caribbean roughly along 10N/11N.
Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 12N
between 75W-81W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the southeastern United States extends
southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to the SW Gulf. A dry and
stable weather pattern persists across the basin. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over Texas is
supporting fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf
west of about 88W. Seas are 5-8 ft within these winds based on
buoys observations. Moderate SE winds along with wave heights of
2-4 ft are over the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S winds across the W Gulf will
give way to strong NW winds this morning, behind a cold front
approaching the Texas coast just prior to sunrise. This front
will move off the Texas coast near sunrise, and reach from Mobile
Bay to the western Bay of Campeche this evening. The front will
then slow down and weaken, and gradually dissipate Wed night into
Thu. Strong to near gale force N winds are expected in the far NW
Gulf behind the front this morning, off Tampico midday, and off
Veracruz this evening and night. Fresh return flow will develop
across NW portions Thu night through Fri, ahead of the next
approaching cold front, which should move off the Texas coast late
Fri afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

The southern extension of the western Atlantic sharp upper-level
trough stretches from eastern Cuba southwestward to coastal
Nicaragua. A very moist and unstable environment east of this
trough, combined with a tropical wave, is sustaining scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean. Otherwise, a
weak pressure gradient is supporting generally gentle to moderate
trade winds across the basin along with relatively low wave
heights of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the regional
Atlantic and Caribbean will maintain gentle to moderate trade
winds and light to moderate seas across the Caribbean basin through
early Wed. A deep layered trough is expected to develop across
the central Caribbean today through Wed and lift northward Thu
and Fri. A tropical wave along 59W will move westward and become
absorbed within the trough along 67W Wed night through Thu. These
features will induce numerous thunderstorms across the eastern
half of the basin Tue through Thu, and extend across the NE
Caribbean islands into the adjacent Atlantic. Fresh to locally
strong trade winds and increasing E swell are moving into Tropical
Atlantic waters this morning, behind the tropical wave, and will
gradually shift into the far eastern Caribbean tonight through
Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
tropical disturbance located S of Bermuda. An area of low pressure
is expected to form north of Puerto Rico over the southwestern
Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual subtropical development of this
system while it meanders over the southwestern Atlantic through
the early part of the weekend.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the Atlantic
waters between 66W and 73W, associated with a deep layered upper
level trough extending N to S between 71W and 80W. The most
recent satellite-derived wind data depicted a broad inverted
surface trough across the area W of 57W, with light to gentle
winds. Wave heights are 4 to 6 ft in NE swell across this area.

In the central Atlantic, an upper-level low spinning near 29N57W
continues to generate scattered moderate convection from 20N-31N
between 50W-60W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under influence
of a weak surface ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high pressure
located SW of the Canary Islands near 25N23W. In the eastern
Atlantic, a cold front is sinking southward to along 30N between
30W and 40W. The front will move farther S across the forecast
region today and weaken, reaching 27N-28N by this evening. Seas
are generally 5-7 ft in N to NE swell across most of the waters E
of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, active showers and thunderstorms
will continue through tonight across the Atlantic waters between
67W and 74W, associated with a deep layered upper trough. The
trough will drift slowly eastward and reorganize at lower levels
along 69W Tue through Thu and maintain very active weather. Low
pressure is expected to develop near 28N67W by Thu night and move
to near 31N68W Fri night where it will become stationary through
Sat.

$$
Stripling
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